"Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter"
On the ongoing subject of economic injustice, somehow the systematic milking and bilking of the general public is never discussed, despite the fact that it's the only thing that keeps this Ponzi scheme running. So here we go...
"Animal spirits is the term John Maynard Keynes used in his 1936 book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money to describe the instincts, proclivities and emotions that ostensibly influence and guide human behavior... It has since been argued that trust is also included in or produced by "animal spirits".
Say no more. Social mood peaked a year ago amid record inflows to the casino. Which is why the Ponzi mind trick is inconveniently wearing off...
Nevertheless, economists have an unbroken tradition of NEVER predicting recession ahead of time, to protect. It's clearly safer to be a member of a profession of known dunces than to assume the career risk of breaking from the pack.
Which is why they still haven't learned that driving forward by looking in the rear view mirror never ends well.
The IMF just confirmed every risk I enumerated yesterday:
"DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Monday cut its world economic growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 due to weakness in Europe and some emerging markets, and said failure to resolve trade tensions could further destabilize a slowing global economy."
In its second downgrade in three months, the global lender also cited a bigger-than-expected slowdown in China’s economy and a possible “No Deal” Brexit as risks to its outlook, saying these could worsen market turbulence in financial markets."
Deja vu of every other downturn, the IMF are chasing their tail. The one country I didn't mention yesterday was Japan, which is where the IMF is taking bong hits:
"The rare bright spot was Japan, with the IMF revising up its forecast by 0.2 percentage"
What I'm trying to say is that the market knows things, that serial idiots don't know.
Which is why anyone listening to economists is going to get duly monkey hammered.
Economists are looking at old and stale data to predict the future. Getting even more stale due to the shutdown:
"What the heck is going on in the economy? It’s anyone’s guess"
“Growth is slowing everywhere, but it is far too soon to run for the exits”
Too soon. Too late. What's the difference?
The one thing that no current market observers ever discuss other than Prechter, is Social Mood. Consumer confidence is the closest they get to discussing sentiment.
Here we see the latest University of Michigan stock market sentiment index:
Sentiment predicted the fourth quarter selloff. And more importantly, predicts more selling:
Here we see the equity call/put ratio indicating the sentiment of high risk speculators, which peaked a year ago as well.
Along with their available capital.
Along with their available capital.
Those using 2016 as the analog, have yet to reconcile the policy divergence.
Which is solely a function of misplaced "trust" in over-confident buffoons.
Which is solely a function of misplaced "trust" in over-confident buffoons.
The Nasdaq shows us what we can expect in the near future - record volatility as the trading range continues to expand.
Until the wheels come off the bus and Skynet no longer offers a bid.
The Dow weekly is backtesting the 200 day moving average.
This has been the largest counter-trend rally since October 2008. It's the fourth lower high in this waterfall crash, since October.
Which can only mean one thing in Ponzi World.
Which can only mean one thing in Ponzi World.
"BTFD"
