Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Global Synchronized Asset Crash

While Central Banks were coordinating their monetary expansion the world enjoyed a "Global synchronized recovery", ephemeral and fabricated as it may have been. Now they are coordinating their liquidity withdrawals, which is having the opposite effect on asset prices. Go figure...

Today was a 90% (93%) down day. The largest percent down day since February VolPlosion. It appears that the Trump-XI fake trade truce was merely a massive bull trap, now down 100 S&P points since yesterday's high. The casino has erased all of the gains since Fed Powell's "all clear" speech last week.

In other words, Jimmy Cramer is getting his wish:
"The best thing for this market would be more bad economic news"




We are facing a global synchronized crash in every risk asset class at the same time, featuring a mid-week intermission in the cash trading market. Futures trading will continue ~24x7 globally to deliver yet another reminder to gamblers why they should never place stop losses on ETFs:



Ironically, the casino closed today right at the break-even line for the year, 2700:




Stock sector rotation and yield curve flattening both signal imminent recession, but still the "experts" don't believe them. Why would free market advocates ever trust markets?

Here are the top trending CNBC headlines, pounding the Dow today:






Deja vu of 2008, the experts are still predicting clear skies ahead by looking backwards. Economists have a perfect track record of never predicting recession. Always looking in the rear view mirror while driving forward. GDP data is lagged by months. Meanwhile, Central Banks purposely invented Quantitative Easing to inflate asset prices to generate the fake "wealth effect". A way of encouraging people to spend. Now, liquidity is going in reverse taking asset prices along for the ride, yet no one seems to take note of the reverse wealth effect. Trillions wiped off global risk markets, no worries. Which is another key reason why markets LEAD the economy, because risk aversion and capital losses in markets feed back into the real economy.

Central Banks can get gamblers into the casino, they just can't get them out. The liquidity door is now barred shut:




Which gets us to the bond market now calling the "expert" bluff on the "sky is blue" economy. I was planning to write about the annihilation of the "Gundlach trade" (short bond), but just in time he switched his view back in line with fact versus fiction:


"He also told Reuters the "totally flat" Treasury note curve will "stay the Fed's hand" on future hikes in the federal funds rate."

One way or the other the Fed will blink:



From a global markets perspective, here we see the difference between the February sell-off and now, via Japan's Nikkei. The Nikkei reached new highs roughly simultaneously with the S&P. During the Feb. selloff, the Nikkei tested the 200 day from above and passed. This time around it just tested the 200 day from below and was rejected in a three wave correction:




Transports same pattern:





Semiconductors corrective, rejected at the one year support line:




Financials. Rejected:




Large cap internet (FANG).


Death cross:




Meanwhile, having destroyed the Retail sector, the Amazon-is taking-over-the-world narrative is now feasting on Transports:



"Don't worry, this is not recession"



"In the end, Amazon imploded Amazon when the Idiocracy learned that there is no such thing as a jobless consumer. Economists figured it out a few weeks later"