But first, for Jimmy Cramer and other bulltards celebrating the newly dovish Fed, this is what a "neutral" 2% Fed Funds rate portends going into recession:
Recall, that soybean farmers are betting that the trade war with China gets wrapped up post haste so they can sell their excess inventories at higher prices.
"Prices for agricultural products like soybeans have dropped to a 10-year low since Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods earlier this year. And farmers across different markets have grown increasingly nervous about how their businesses will fare if the trade war continues."
The casino is break-even on the year. Which at minimum throws in question the value of record stock buybacks and mega tax cuts. With four weeks left in the year, the stakes could not be higher.
Here is a potential wave count. For those who don't subscribe to Elliott Wave Theory, regardless the symmetry between the two fractals is uncanny. Both "v" wave downs had large overnight gaps. Both wave "2" retracements have large upside gaps. The only open gaps are all below today's close.
If this count is right, December will be a bloodbath on a scale few can imagine.
Today's rally almost tagged the 200 dma:
The Nasdaq is weaker than the S&P. The recent low undercut the October low. Volume on this advance is weak relative to recent down days:
Down volume is already the heaviest in eight years - since the 2010 Flash Crash. Heavier than the 2011 -20% S&P selloff. Apart from 2010, this would be the heaviest selloff since Lehman:
Momo stocks backtesting one year support. The 200 dma a distant memory:
Large cap internet (FANG) well below the 200 day:
Oil did not partake in today's "everything" rally:
“Crude not being able to rally with risk-on [sentiment] across the board and U.S. dollar weakness in all asset classes says a lot... “We feel a break of $50 is inevitable” for WTI."
The world waits
This will make 2008 seem like a fucking picnic
#Winning!!!
