Thursday, March 29, 2018

GLOBAL RISK OFF: THE CYCLE IS OVER

This was the week that global fake reflation turned back into a pumpkin. Barring more porn star interviews, the 200 day Maginot Line is a mere 35 points away from Blitzkrieg...

This week Tech, Financials, and bond yields all tanked at a rate last seen at the end of Q4 2015, as Skynet put lipstick on the pig for quarter end. 

Bueller?





Facebook having been taken to the woodshed last week, it was Amazon's turn to get pole axed Wednesday on news that Trump was targeting the company for unfair tax treatment. Later in the day, White House spokesperson Huckleberry Sanders denied that report, so the stock rallied. 

Then this came out today:


The problem with being a spokesperson for a pathological liar, is that you never know who is showing up for work today.




Which was the exact same risk I alluded to last week relative to the "bullish" trade war with China. Contrary to popular belief, paranoid schizophrenia is not "priced in"...




Despite the tech wreck, Skynet defended the 200 day Maginot Line at all costs, closing the quarter at the exact same level as Monday's porn star open. 

I think we all see where I'm going with this...




Whereas last week saw all things 'yield' get hammered. This week was Tech's turn. For the month of March overall, there was a change in leadership, from bad to worse. The Nasdaq is now flat on the year, while Utilities are down on the year. 

Basically tying two rocks together to see if they float...




Risk is now OFF in China Tech, Biotech, Emerging Markets, FANG mega tech, crypto currencies, and mid-cap momentum. 

It appears that Bitcoin leads the casino, by a few hours...




The Nasdaq kissed the two year trend-line good bye today...



What this means of course, is that despite relentless BTFD, and even more relentless hyperbole, risk is fully OFF globally for the first time in two years. Just don't tell anyone, because it's still a secret. 





For some people...



In summary:



"Until recently, being a mega-cap stock — and investing in one — was the best way to get returns out of this stock market. Not anymore. As the first quarter of market trading comes to a close, the largest U.S. stocks will go down as the biggest losers."




The chart of the week has to be this one. Note the negative divergence in breadth relative to last time...





This is what happens when zombies drink too much Kool-Aid. 

They start to believe in fairy tales, and seek out whomever will tell them their bedtime story.