Thursday, December 1, 2016

LIMIT DOWN RISK

Parking one's head in their own ass is not being an "optimist"...

The Dow was up today compliments of Trump nominating Goldman Sachs to run Treasury:




However, the Wilshire/Dow ratio portends badly...




If tomorrow's jobless report is weak like the last one, then the massively overbought USDJPY carry trade will unwind ahead of Italy's referendum on Sunday...

There have been three limit down S&P futures events in the past 18 months. So far...


Lending more credence to my theory is the fact that the dollar index is already reversing 

with USDJPY (gray):



Meanwhile, China is in Quantitative Tightening mode, which tends to monkey hammer global stocks

Here we see the Offshore Yuan with Alibaba which was down almost 5% today...




Risk Impairity will be another source of overnight downside, coming off the worst month since last December...

Circled...

Doh!




All of which will be fine, as long as Europe doesn't final implode at 3am Eastern...









Prepare for island reversal of fortune. You know, like last time wave 'c' completed...



Of course if the jobs report is running hot, then this shit show will spontaneously implode...



Not too many good options when everyone's on the wrong side of the boat