Friday, April 29, 2016

Oil Is FULL Ponzi

It's a momentum feedback loop driven by the marginal fool...

The "price" of oil as represented by the front month futures is 100% disconnected from the fundamentals. So why hasn't oil collapsed? Because of continuing storage. In other words, speculators are holding up the spot market and enduring continuing losses to do so...the "cure" for the glut has been to put more oil in storage. The "bullish" thesis for all this is that marginal (U.S.) producers are going out of business. And yet oil inventories keep rising. Meanwhile recent higher prices allowed marginal producers to re-hedge, issue more equity, and refinance their debt, which means more oil coming to market...

If the cure for high inventories is low prices then why are inventories at an all time high despite oil prices at 2009 levels? Because of speculation and carry storage as opposed to final demand:

Inventories


And if the cure for low prices is increased demand, then why is the price so low while the long futures position is all time high? Again, purely due to speculation, which has only increased the amount of oil on the market.

Commitment of traders:



All of which means that oil has become 100% a momentum trade, that will end extremely spectacularly, once the last fool is found. 

USO Volume indicates a low volume head fake


The long-term USO (ETF) chart indicates the colossal cost of carry losses incurred by speculators...


USO Spiked above the trend line and then gave it all back...