Thursday, February 25, 2016

Waterfall Crash: Base Case Scenario

ZH: Feb. 25, 2016

This is either August all over again (higher) or 1929/1987, lower. Why waterfall crash lower? Because JP Morgan put out the call to short 1950 which Team Groupthink did en masse up to 1945, and then got hammered during the past two day short squeeze. In other words, they're ALL IN...






Let the charts decide...

My overall take is that this "rally" is all about short-covering and recession stocks. In other words, we've seen this movie before...

Casinos and consumer staples:



Double death cross: We've never seen this before...


6 month overbought:
NYSE McClellan Oscillator


Back into heavy resistance...



Index call/put ratio: someone is out over their skis...



JPY Carry divergence:


Oil divergence:


Alibaba aka. Chinese Stocks which tanked last night -7%:


Treasury yield divergence: This is not August...


Transports have finished up their retracement...



Recession stocks finishing up a colossal rising wedge...


European stocks: Now this is a buying opportunity if we've ever seen one...


I suppose if it was someone else's money I would roll the dice. I don't want them to think I'm sitting in cash...

52 week range of average stock:


World ex-U.S.: What could be more bullish than this?


Financials: "Recession? La la la, we can't hear you"


Nasdaq lows:


S&P / $USD ratio: Another coincidence...


One or two global banks going FULL Lehman, won't derail this party...


Price momentum (S&P):


Price / volume


Realized volatility:




Everyone piled into Exxon at the end last time, but I'm sure this time the end result will be different...

Exxon / Energy sector ratio: