Sunday, September 13, 2015

Positioned For Maximum Shock And Awe

Gamblers have been conditioned by Central Banks to sell volatility on spikes, always betting on a v-shaped recovery. Now we see that they did it again...

Via the CBOE, we see below the inverted options put/call ratio (aka. call/put) 15 day moving average (red). Note that it peaks BEFORE volatility spikes and that the largest vol spikes (black) occur after it has peaked and receded. As we see far right, once again VIX speculators covered into the VIX spike, and the 15 dma is now at the lowest level in 6 months...



The definition of "volatility" is catching people by surprise, and via the lowest long volatility position in six months, once again, gamblers are ready to be surprised.