Monday, December 15, 2014

Bitcoined by Deflation

The Russian Ruble has lost half of its (dollar) purchasing power in one year

Having lost 96% of its purchasing power since 1913, the dollar is now rising against all global assets (albeit w/question mark over the Dow)...


US Dollar index


The German Dax made a new all time high two weeks ago.
Here is the German stock market in U.S. dollar terms:


Ex-Dow, the only asset strengthening in dollar dollar terms is long-term Treasuries



Accelerating deflation in broad daylight
The deflationary hypothesis, which is accelerating in broad daylight, posits a collapse in the dollar money supply which consists overwhelmingly of unsecured debt. Once that occurs, everything will (continue to) lose value in dollar terms. My bet against Prechter & Co. is that long-term Treasuries will be THE LAST DOMINO to fall and hence will (continue to) rise against the dollar, given that they have positive carry (interest) and are the only means for achieving dollar liquidity for significant amounts of money - without incurring negative roll-over prevalent in low yielding t-bills. When/if 30 year yields fall below the 2012 level, we'll know who is right, which at this rate (below) isn't going to take very long.

Deflation accelerating: and these are VERY early days. Wait until the Dow catches down to reality - we see from 2008 below what happened to Treasury yields. General price inflation will go negative, so nominal yields can go negative as well, as we've seen with t-bills on and off during the past few years...



INVEST AT YOUR OWN RISK