Friday, November 28, 2014
I am more bearish now than I have ever been
My credibility as a market prognosticator has been systematically compromised by Central Banks, Russian programmed HFT Bots, and Prechter & Co, who have likewise been betting against the impossible for years straight. Despite global inequality and poverty rising every year since 2008, accompanied by a 40% increase in global debt, the U.S. stock market has defied logic and reality as it always does in its lead up to another crash landing. I always expected that the corporate estate sale that went into overdrive in 2000 and then into Shock Doctrine overdrive in 2008, would catch up to me personally and professionally, so I "hedged" accordingly. That market hedging strategy would be far too much pain for the average drone who is conditioned to leverage themselves 300% to the status quo so they can parade their latest trinkets as a sign that they're keeping up with the Dow Jones' just fine, thanks. For me, however, it was merely prudent to hedge against the musical chairs corporate downsizing game which has been relentlessly chewing through white collar jobs for 15+ years straight and which decimated the blue collar sector in the decades prior. Arguably my own job has been "on the line" non-stop for 6 years now, but now I know that barring some miracle it will likely be phased out sometime in the second half of 2015. I get to put myself out of my own job, as a reward for 15 years of service.
This is what the fucktards in the media and typical "commentators" don't get - this job killing machine is coming for all of us - the silent majority having been ploughed under already. They have no voice in the mannekin media, so they essentially don't exist. Just like the billions of slaves worldwide living on $2.50/day or less don't exist except when they are being adopted by Angelina Jolie.
And suffice to say that if the job killing machine is reaching manic levels now during the greatest profit margin expansion in human history, what does that portend for the remaining "good" jobs when the collapse of 2008 resumes from where it left off?
I fully accept that the stock market can and has remained irrational longer than anyone can remain solvent. However, as a hedge against eating dog food, I nevertheless keep one eye open at all times to the ever-growing market risks. Despite the stock market's denial today - diverging ever greater from reality than what was witnessed in 2000 and 2007 - nevertheless, reality is closing in on all sides, on this ossified society fully incapable of facing reality on any level.
The rapid declines in Treasury yields and oil these past few weeks since the Fed's QE bond buying ended, are the widely ignored canaries in the coalmine that this latest cycle is ending amid record stock market optimism, record margin debt, and minimal hedging. Today's historically elevated stock prices held aloft by HFT Bots on minimal volumes represent a notional illusion. They represent the marginal price that will be paid by the next Bot trading on millisecond boundaries amidst non-existent selling. And the real issue, is that NO ONE knows where all of that 0% interest rate money flowed these past 6 years - mortgages, Cov-lite loans, junk bonds, municipal bonds, Ponzi sovereign bonds, massively leveraged currency carry trades etc. No one can save the markets now, not Central Banks acting in collusion, not the Russian HFT programmers.
Capitulate? Quite the contrary.
Posted by Mac10 at 8:56 AM