Wednesday, May 28, 2014

A Bull Market in Buffoons

Buffoon: Someone with loud, dumb, self-serving answers to every question - bite-sized easy answers, for a stoned Idiocracy desperate to be lied to.

As we know, the buffoons are running this entire shit show from end to end...

As ZH points out, the main topic of markets discussion today was the massive disconnect between stocks and Treasury bonds.
As we see below, this is the the largest disconnect in recent history, so either T-bonds are right and the economy is weakening or stocks, margined to the highest level in history, are right for the first time ever:



And this is the ensuing Buffoon-o-Rama
Kudlow: "Buy stocks for the next five years. Just stay with it"
Guest: "No one has a good explanation for why bonds are rallying"
Kudlow: "It's no big deal. Gold is crashing. How good is that?"
Kudlow: "...I want to be long European stocks. Just get into the stock market"
Evans: "Couldn't this be a 1997-style moment?"
Kudlow: "No way. This is a Goldilocks Moment"





The Idiocracy is one gigantic conflict of interest
Here is a Wall Street analyst citing a SlickCon Valley venture capitalist to answer the question is "Tech in a Bubble?" And not just any SlickCon Valley VC, but Mary Meeker of all people. Yes, that Mary Meeker who was "queen of the Dotcom bubble". Hard to believe, but Meeker says that Tech valuations today are not at "bubble levels". No conflict of interest there...


 http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000279437

Circa Y2K:
"Celebrity Internet analysts such as Morgan Stanley's Mary Meeker and Merrill Lynch's Henry Blodget have come to symbolize the intellectual hollowness of the Internet bubble's headiest days. They've also become the target of many investor lawsuits that claim they concealed conflicts of interest as they touted dotcom stocks on television and in print"


And then there's reality...
  1. "The pace at which companies are making new public filings for IPOs is at levels not seen since 2000"
  2. Valuations accorded to these companies are the highest since 2000 at 14.5x sales (the median P/S ratio for existing companies is 1.85)
  3. "That surge of interest "is bringing lots of companies out of the woodwork that couldn't have gone public in the past,"
  4. "So far this year, nearly three-quarters of companies that have gone public are unprofitable"

Unfortunately, this is not Y2K
Household median income and employment both peaked 15 years ago...


Consumer CONfidence Peaked 15 years ago
Total Debt has doubled


Inflation-adjusted Dow - About the same:



Bull market in buffoons: Parabolic