A subtle reminder as to how Ponzi Schemes end i.e. suddenly and violently, leaving nothing behind to show that they ever existed.
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The Dow Jones Prozac Dispenser: Is Everybody Happy?
This entire globalized catastrophe is held up by a thin thread of investor confidence which itself has been artificially sustained by Fed dopium feeding HFT algorithms. It's a "feel good" market that has convinced the better part of a Prozac-addled society to look the other way to the disintegrating global economy. When the stock market gets vaporized, so too will the manic false confidence holding up insolvent sovereign debt markets - and the totally unfounded confidence holding up today's game show hosts in leadership. The latent time bomb known as High Frequency Trading, will ultimately obliterate this fabricated confidence, thereby initiating the Deathstar 2.0 implosion sequence.
This entire globalized catastrophe is held up by a thin thread of investor confidence which itself has been artificially sustained by Fed dopium feeding HFT algorithms. It's a "feel good" market that has convinced the better part of a Prozac-addled society to look the other way to the disintegrating global economy. When the stock market gets vaporized, so too will the manic false confidence holding up insolvent sovereign debt markets - and the totally unfounded confidence holding up today's game show hosts in leadership. The latent time bomb known as High Frequency Trading, will ultimately obliterate this fabricated confidence, thereby initiating the Deathstar 2.0 implosion sequence.
Deathtrap
Mega Risk @All Time Highs and Mass Complacency
In addition to the structural risks I reiterated last week: Correlation, Margin Record, Leverage Risk, Weakening Economy, Skynet, Wall Street malincentives etc. - this week saw a ratcheting up of several risk factors. For the first time in several years, none of the major central banks are actively supporting financial asset prices. They are either removing liquidity or in the case of the ECB taking steps to weaken the currency which will undermine the carry trades. The Dow closed at a new all time high on Tuesday, but then closed the week at a level it first achieved five months ago. So it continues to chew up capital to go nowhere. Small caps, biotech, momentum stocks have left the party, and are now joined by financial stocks. IPOs are starting to fail on a regular basis despite the continuing dumping of new shares by lockup expirations. Rising geopolitical risk remains completely ignored.
Italian Stock Market ("doh!")
Euro weakness continued as Draghi's multi-year "We'll do whatever it takes" (to support financial assets) via strong Euro, 180 degree u-turned into "We'll do whatever it takes" (to support exports) via a weak Euro. In addition to European stocks selling off, so did high risk sovereign debt.
Land of the Deadcat Bounce
Meanwhile Japanese GDP was up 6 fucking percent year over year, which means that the Japanese monetary spigot just closed despite the Yen being at a critical threshold and threatening to break lower (higher in value versus dollar) which will kill the Asian carry trades funded in Yen:
The Hunger Games Economy
Here in the U.S., Walmart, purveyor of all things junk, missed their quarter again, reporting the smallest quarterly growth in five years:
Homebuilder sentiment tanked to a year low:
Dow (Transports) Casino
The Dow Jones Industrial Average held on to all time highs, bolstered by the Transports which are now beyond parabolic:
Dow Transports
A Very Interesting Dow Fractal at Multiple Degrees of Trend
I Colour coded each repeating segment:
The Smart Money is Leaving the Station
Long-term T-Bonds assessed all of the above data and promptly broke out to the upside, forcing wrongly positioned shorts to cover:
TLT is now up 13% on the year and hence 13% ahead of the Dow - and the fireworks haven't even started yet...
Small Caps Were Punked Below their 200 DMA
Russell 2000
Risk Appetite Collapsing
The ratio of the Dow to the Russell 2000:
Net Selling Pressure Continues to Rise
TRIN 200 DMA
Stocks above 50 DMA
Continuing to contract:
Mega Risk @All Time Highs and Mass Complacency
In addition to the structural risks I reiterated last week: Correlation, Margin Record, Leverage Risk, Weakening Economy, Skynet, Wall Street malincentives etc. - this week saw a ratcheting up of several risk factors. For the first time in several years, none of the major central banks are actively supporting financial asset prices. They are either removing liquidity or in the case of the ECB taking steps to weaken the currency which will undermine the carry trades. The Dow closed at a new all time high on Tuesday, but then closed the week at a level it first achieved five months ago. So it continues to chew up capital to go nowhere. Small caps, biotech, momentum stocks have left the party, and are now joined by financial stocks. IPOs are starting to fail on a regular basis despite the continuing dumping of new shares by lockup expirations. Rising geopolitical risk remains completely ignored.
Italian Stock Market ("doh!")
Euro weakness continued as Draghi's multi-year "We'll do whatever it takes" (to support financial assets) via strong Euro, 180 degree u-turned into "We'll do whatever it takes" (to support exports) via a weak Euro. In addition to European stocks selling off, so did high risk sovereign debt.
Land of the Deadcat Bounce
Meanwhile Japanese GDP was up 6 fucking percent year over year, which means that the Japanese monetary spigot just closed despite the Yen being at a critical threshold and threatening to break lower (higher in value versus dollar) which will kill the Asian carry trades funded in Yen:
The Hunger Games Economy
Here in the U.S., Walmart, purveyor of all things junk, missed their quarter again, reporting the smallest quarterly growth in five years:
Homebuilder sentiment tanked to a year low:
Dow (Transports) Casino
The Dow Jones Industrial Average held on to all time highs, bolstered by the Transports which are now beyond parabolic:
Dow Transports
A Very Interesting Dow Fractal at Multiple Degrees of Trend
I Colour coded each repeating segment:
The Smart Money is Leaving the Station
Long-term T-Bonds assessed all of the above data and promptly broke out to the upside, forcing wrongly positioned shorts to cover:
TLT is now up 13% on the year and hence 13% ahead of the Dow - and the fireworks haven't even started yet...
Small Caps Were Punked Below their 200 DMA
Russell 2000
Risk Appetite Collapsing
The ratio of the Dow to the Russell 2000:
Net Selling Pressure Continues to Rise
TRIN 200 DMA
Stocks above 50 DMA
Continuing to contract:
Mega-Top: Scary...
Daily Momentum
The number of stocks making new 52-week highs
Ludicrous
Got Hedging?
"No thanks - this isn't my money, and I only get paid when it goes up, so if it goes down, well that's a shame. I can't believe these dumbfucks trusted me with their money all over again. My money is in Treasuries, on Grand Cayman. Paying taxes is for losers..."
The IPO Window is Closing Quickly
IPO Scorecard, only 50% of the last 100 IPOs are now above their offering price, which means suckers who bought them on the first day jump - which is usually well above the offer price - are well underwater now. http://www.iposcoop.com/
Got Complacency?
The Dow hit a new All time high on Tuesday and the Options volatility index hit multi-year lows this week, despite economies melting down and wars breaking out in every corner of the globe:
Dow with VIX
REMEMBER: NOTHING MATTERS UNTIL IT COLLAPSES, SO BTFATH
