Sunday, November 11, 2012

Willful Ignorance Is The Last Refuge Of The Idiocracy

As I stated in my last post, "A World Without Money", I am still staggered by the willingness of otherwise seemingly intelligent people to overlook the implications of this impending fiasco, even though the risk we face today is ten times what it was in 2008.  For Wall Street, the major difference between then and now is that back in 2008, Wall Street had figured out how to make massive profits by shorting the subprime market (i.e. their own customers), therefore there was a vested interest in spreading "increased awareness" of the subprime issue to expedite profit realization, as everyone piled onto the same trade.  This time around, there is no easy short trade, because Global Central banks are implicitly on the other side of every risk trade.  Hedge funds have underperformed for two years now, because they can't get an edge on this liquidity inflated market.  And if they can't make any money off it, then it's off their radar.  Of course, the other half of Wall Street is fat and happy heads down in the Central Bank feed bag making money off of the various carry trades enabled by 0% interest rates.

Beyond Wall Street, I have to assume that most people were heavily traumatized by the events of 2008 and therefore don't even want to ponder our current situation.  Whenever I bring up the issues I've raised on this blog, most people don't want to even discuss it.  Few will even attempt to debate, most just say they hope I am wrong.  From a Baby Boomer's standpoint at or near retirement, the idea of another meltdown is unthinkable...

In other words the overwhelming majority at this juncture are bought in and sold out to the status quo, so they have no desire or ability to even look over the edge into the abyss.  It's too scary.  Therefore, it should come as no surprise that the future will hold a high degree of surprise for the overwhelming majority who have both hands over their eyes.  I just read this article on Spiegel (h/t ZeroHedge), decrying Germany's "infantile crush on Obama." As the author explains, Germans don't "get" the U.S. and are wrong to assume that a great power can be felled over night.  Unfortunately, aside from discussing downed power lines for half the article, he leaves out all of the most important facts and details attendant at this juncture: depletion of the treasury, mass consumption at the expense of R&D, strategic overreach, political gridlock, aging of the population, industrial arbitrage, secular unemployment, energy dependency - All of the things that Paul Kennedy two decades ago indicated attend a great power in decline.  The author of the Spiegel article also ignores the fact that the most recent "empire" to collapse was the Soviet Union, which disintegrated virtually overnight - an event that took even the CIA by total surprise.  In other words, it's a vacuous article containing just more wishful thinking in the face of overwhelming facts to the contrary.  If anything, the majority of Germans including the author are willfully delusional to assume that the U.S. can meltdown without affecting the rest of the world.  Or for that matter to assume that Europe's meltdown won't occur first.  Debating who will crack first, the U.S. or Europe is like tying two rocks together and then debating which of them will sink to the bottom the fastest.  Getting back to the point of the article, as usual, the author left out the most important fact which is that every other country in the world overwhelmingly supported Obama over Romney, therefore this purported "infantile crush" is in no way specific to Germany.  And of course China supported Romney over Obama, because at least they know who outsourced all of the jobs and industries to China - Republicans.  I'm not just talking about Republican politicians, I am talking about all of the well placed Republicans in major U.S. Corporations who actively sold off their own country.  So you can't beat the irony of paranoid hill billies voting Republican because of their racist xenophobic fears, only to find out that America's greatest rival concurs with their choice for President.  Apparently the hill billy class are literally the only ones worldwide who haven't woken up to the fact that they are being served for lunch by members of their own party.

Those Outsourcing nations really like Republicans - go figure:



Don't Get High Off Your Own Supply
The Spiegel article is just one small example of willful ignorance.  Every day we are confronted with a never ending stream of unfounded opinions.  It's never about telling a blatant lie that can be easily disproved.  The way of the Idiocracy, is to cleverly omit the critical assumption that would put into question whatever unsustainable behaviour or policy is being advanced.  This is the entire business model of Faux News in a nutshell.  And it's one thing when everyday people engage in this delusion, it's another thing when omitting reality or otherwise extrapolating the unsustainable into the indefinite future is implicitly ingrained in every nation's policy platform.  In other words our infantile policy-makers have forgotten the number one rule of dope dealing, which is - don't get high off your own supply.  Too late.

So on the face of it, one would assume that I have very few "touchstones" to verify whether or not my thesis is actually true, other than to trust in facts and reality.  Except, I have one other advantage most people don't have, which is my Blog stats.  You see when I set up this blog, I didn't create links to other sites, I didn't advertise and I didn't promote it.  If you found this blog, it's because you were looking for it.

As you see below, a strange thing happened this past May, it turns out a lot more people are starting to see the world for what it is i.e. A massive Ponzi Scheme.  That initial spike higher in May coincided with the JPMorgan "whale" blowup, which was a rude reminder that nothing has changed on Wall Street and therefore we are all still sitting on a latent time bomb.  Notice, that the only real spike of note, prior to this year, was way back in 2008.  It goes without saying given the prevailing level of denialism, that a site like this won't go truly viral until well after the 'event'.  What is even more interesting is that the stock market just made a new multi-year high just below the all time high of 2007. Usually when the market rallies, my blog stats go in the other direction.  Not so this time.  Apparently the Point of Recognition is indeed approaching. 

PonziWorld blog hit trend: