Ponzi World (Over 3 Billion NOT Served)

Saturday, November 8, 2014

A Too High Tolerance for Lies and Bullshit

Ponzi Borrowing Visualized

aka. The Obama pseudo-recovery

U.S. real GDP per capita less the Federal Deficit

Having been squandered on tax cuts and military blunders, the Keynesian economic multiplier is now negative for the first time in U.S. history. Analogous to using antibiotics for 35 years straight and then acting surprised when they stop working.

A 35 year love affair with lies and bullshit

Friday, November 7, 2014

A Tale of Greed, Greed, and More Fucking Greed

Bloomberg: November 7th, 2014:
Wage Deflation in the U.S.

"Something changed in 2008". You don't say:

I always knew that the Developed World would converge with the Third World one day.
I've never been given any reason to believe otherwise

Forward Deflation expectations as imputed from 30 Year Treasury yields. Now back in 2009
The Fed's bond buying officially ended last week, but yields keep falling. No one saw that coming - especially Prechter

ar·bi·trage:
"buy in one locale, sell in another, until prices (aka. wages) equalize"

And for the record, stocks always catch down to ~~bonds~~ Reality

Round 2: Intermission is Ending

Occupy the night vision goggles

2008 changed absolutely nothing, beyond creating a generation of self-absorbed dumbfucks who now believe in the indefinite impossible.

The five year "interlude" was a squandered gift. Let's see what changes this time...

Wall Street: Heads, I Win. Tails, You Lose

MW: November 7th, 2014

"The past two weeks saw the biggest swing from bears to bulls in 40 years"

MW: November 7th, 2014

"U.S. investor optimism at highest level in 2014"

AAII Survey Bears 9 year low

II Survey: %Bearish

Bloomberg: November 3rd, 2014: Fund Managers Trailing Benchmarks:
“The only way you’re going to pick up performance is by being fully invested.”

Eight weeks to bonus, so BTFATH

Dead-End: A Cyclical Policy for a Secular Problem

Some may be surprised to learn that Keynesian stimulus was not intended to pay for massive tax cuts and military blunders

"Reagan proved that deficits don't matter" - Dick Cheney
U.S. Federal Debt Adjusted for Inflation:

In 1980 the term "Republican Conservative" became inverted to mean someone who spends the government into oblivion. The debt tripled from 1980 to 1990. "Tax and spend" Democrats were onboard from the start.

The Last Leg of the Stool

Yen Carry Trade.

Rule #1: Follow the Money
Dollar/Yen inverted

He who laughs last, laughs hardest.

Gambling Dumbfucks Can't See the Bubble, Because They Are The Bubble

As long as they keep throwing ever-more money at it, everything will be fine

The Earnings Yield (earnings / price) (red line) Peaked Three Years Ago

Subsequently, the rise in the market has been due to Central Banks, HFT, and Etraders locked in their own momentum feedback loop. Even in 2007, the Earnings Yield kept pace with the market:

A Bubble on Top of a Bubble

Stock prices are outrunning profits (above) and profits are out-running GDP (below). The unsustainability of this double bubble, can't be remotely over-stated:

Profits versus GDP:

In this casino the only cashier is the next dunce who walks through the door

Out of the Pan Into the Fire

Medical Bills are the Biggest Cause of Bankruptcy in the U.S.

As a first step to repay their loyal voters, Republicans will now repeal Obamacare so their unemployed constituents can more easily bankrupt themselves on medical bills...

The Minsky Cycle

The Canadian Dollar, Oil and Russian Ruble are all at new multi-year lows this week

The Russian sanctions are starting to boomerang back to the Globalized Ponzi scheme some euphemistically call the "Economy". Today's policy dunces will realize far too late that Globalization has massively correlated all economies. Or didn't we remember that from 2013 when Cyprus, an island state of a million people, nearly defaulted?

Global Macro

Canadian Dollar, Russian Stocks, Crude Oil, Copper: