Trump is the 1929 President. He's full steam ahead ignorance and arrogance. No one could stop him if they tried...
What we face is a generation of aging denialists who have jammed up the media and political system with self-serving bullshit. Exhibiting an overwhelming preference for return on capital over return on labour. Which has led to a surfeit of 0% poverty capital circling the globe looking for the next ponzi asset to pump and dump, generating what they call "yield"...
Next week the Fed is going to raise interest rates again.
Any questions?
In my next life I'm going to be an economist. First I'll have to get a frontal lobotomy or I'll be over-qualified.
Corporate profits (blue) versus GDP
"Long-term investors and workers hoping that the tax overhaul and repatriation holiday will encourage investment in growth and a rise in wages should brace for disappointment.
A spike in share buyback and special dividend announcements this week reveals that companies are more likely to use any money saved on an all-too-familiar item: shareholder returns."
And of course the punchline:
"We would hire more people if we saw growing demand for our products and services"
Got that? Companies can't pay people more because there's no demand for their products and services. As they say, never go FULL RETARD.
This is when apologists tell us you can't pay people more than they are worth. But these same dullards never seem to have a problem with paying people a lot less than they're worth:
Productivity versus wages
There's only one way to fix this problem.
Reverse Shock Doctrine:
The globalized economy is a colossal Ponzi Scheme in which the vast majority survive on the bread crumbs falling off the table. The possibility of 7 billion people achieving a consumption-oriented lifestyle is zero, so the World Bank conveniently set the poverty line at $1.25/day to legalize global slavery. As long as someone else's children are doing the suffering, it's "all good". Post-2008, this illusion was extended merely by plundering all future generations.
Friday, December 8, 2017
Beware The Lump Of Coal
The year of Trump may not end the way most people seem to expect. Peace on earth, goodwill towards men, so forth and so on...
We have some indications that social mood may have peaked this week:
Heisenberg: The Scariest Chart Of All
Getting out will be impossible
We have some indications that social mood may have peaked this week:
Heisenberg: The Scariest Chart Of All
"Remaining steadfastly bearish in the face of a rally can be frustrating, but once it becomes readily apparent that optimism has morphed into mania – that rational exuberance has become irrational – there’s a certain satisfaction in watching the lemmings sprint towards the cliff."
Gamblers Going All In Like Never Before
TD Ameritrade: “The IMX saw its largest single-month increase ever in November, increasing over 15% to hit an all-time high of 8.53,” the broker says on its website, citing an proprietary index that tracks holdings, positions, trading activity, and other data from client portfolios held by real investors each month and rolls it all up into an index."
Gamblers Going All In Like Never Before
TD Ameritrade: “The IMX saw its largest single-month increase ever in November, increasing over 15% to hit an all-time high of 8.53,” the broker says on its website, citing an proprietary index that tracks holdings, positions, trading activity, and other data from client portfolios held by real investors each month and rolls it all up into an index."
"The irony of Coinbase hitting the mainstream is that, for many customers, the service was actually unavailable for large portions of the day."
"Which assets are likely to be impacted the most once this Chinese bubble pops? Two suggestions according to BofA are cryptos and/or emerging markets"
Getting in is easy...
Getting out will be impossible
Thursday, December 7, 2017
A Ponzi Currency To Implode Ponzi World
For a society in abject denial about absolutely everything from the environment to the economy, geopolitics, and health, BitCasino is the perfect way to self-implode...
The sheeple have perfect market timing - they only go ALL IN at the top. Bitcoin may well be the match that ignites the largest asset bubble in human history. Now that Ponzi schemes have been legalized, it's time to let Bernie Madoff out of jail...
The sheeple have perfect market timing - they only go ALL IN at the top. Bitcoin may well be the match that ignites the largest asset bubble in human history. Now that Ponzi schemes have been legalized, it's time to let Bernie Madoff out of jail...
First off, Bitcoin's recent melt-up came at the expense of Momentum Tech (IBD 50):
And despite continual obfuscations as to whether Bitcoin is a bubble, a currency, a "store of value", or a Ponzi scheme - the fact remains that a staggering 2/3rds of its total market cap was generated in the past three weeks:
It took ~5 years to achieve a market cap of $100 billion and ~one month to triple that figure:
Bitcoin is apparently supplanting gold as the "true" store of value. Just another man-boy fantasy...
Bitcoin has been a massive driver of semiconductor sales:
Bitcoin futures could implode entire brokerages...
"Bitcoin futures are set to begin trading Sunday at the CBOE and a week later at the CME, and retail brokerages are bracing"
"How silly people are, it is just amazing"
Bitcoin is the ultimate manifestation of late cycle euphoria. Social Mood on steroids. It's the last speculative asset that is still going vertical. Each dip is shorter and shorter...
Fortunately the Dow is not in a bubble:
"Overall, stocks are trading at very lofty valuations, and cash holdings for Merrill Lynch clients are below where they were in 2007. Margin debt is at a record. Institutional sentiment indicators tracked by Barron’s are wildly bullish."
"So, what else is new? These indicators have been flashing red for months, and the market has continued to rise...That’s why I think except for manias like bitcoin and the FAANGs, we’re in the early stages of stock-market euphoria. The best—or worst—is yet to come."
Got that? All of the conditions are in place for a collapse, however, since this has been going on for quite some time already, that means we're in the early stages.
With logic like that who the hell needs enemies?
Got that? All of the conditions are in place for a collapse, however, since this has been going on for quite some time already, that means we're in the early stages.
With logic like that who the hell needs enemies?
FOMOC: Fear Of Missing Out On Collapse
RISK OFF is no longer an option for this ponzi scheme. Stoned zombies never got the memo. The Pied Piper of Bitcoin has stolen the momentum from momentum, and it's not coming back...
@NorthmanTrader: "Never before has retail gotten this aggressively exposed to stocks"
@NorthmanTrader: "Never before has retail gotten this aggressively exposed to stocks"
"Therefore, baby boomers are joining the generations below them by piling on investment risk like never before and investment industry is happy to oblige."
"A plethora of low-cost ETFs now allow these investors to “keep up” with the market for “fear of missing out.” [FOMO] There are even levered, double-levered and triple-levered ETFs that can torque up one’s exposure in order to play catch-up. And why shouldn’t they given the U.S. equity market is setting new records for duration without a correction as every dip is almost instantaneously bought up."
Via NorthmanTrader, we are reminded that Wall Street analysts intentionally NEVER predict the end of cycle. Why would they scare their own customers away? After all, there's always a bigger shill willing to up the ante to garner more fund flows. Wild ass predictions being just another investment "service".
Hence for 2018, the casino can only go higher:
"For 2018, valuation and sanity lose, momentum wins"
As we see below, active managers got rinsed last week - forced back in to buy the tax cut melt-up top. Only to get sold hard earlier this week. Which is why Zerohedge trolls Gartman constantly - because he's trend-following. That said, I suggest that the rinse cycle is ending:
Just a hunch
Speaking of the rinse cycle, as expected, Skynet is trying to get the momentum back in momentum, because without it the casino is in big trouble:
Unfortunately, for Skynet, Etraders took their ball over to Bitcoin and one way or another they're not coming back. Either because it's going to infinity, or because it's going to $0. There's no way to compete with a toy that trades 24x7 and fluctuates 20% on a daily basis.
BitCasino: The only game in town
The Bitcoin supernova is sucking money out of everywhere, including the mattress...
Meanwhile, the Trump tax bill has monkey hammered big cap tech:
Until the final tax bill gets passed, these stocks have lost their bid...
The past week year in summary:
Per my discussion on volatility yesterday, as long as the Dow never touches its 50 week moving average again, this will all be fine.
Because if the VIX merely doubles back to its historical range, it will blow this entire ponzi scheme to kingdom come...
Wednesday, December 6, 2017
The End Of The Ponzi Super Cycle
i.e. when eight years of non-stop bullshit gets unceremoniously "disgorged"...
I was reading this and ruminating on its assertions...
ZH: Since 2014 Central Bank BTFD Broke Volatility
The operating assumption of the above article and those who adhere to the Central Bank "put" hypothesis, is that every dip should get bought, because there will never be another RISK OFF period lasting more than :5 minutes ever again. I challenge that hypothesis.
One can make the case that the interim accumulation of unhedged risk exposure has built up to an extent that stock ownership is now a binary risk event. We got a taste of that just last week.
A week ago during the tax cut melt-up, big cap tech lost its bid amid a mini flash crash. The Nasdaq 100 has yet to recover those losses, while the S&P went on to a new tax cut high. Since the weekend passage of the Senate tax bill there's been a nascent rotation from cyclicals back to tech. When that rotation ends, we'll see how these overowned bricks trade again...
Meanwhile, ever since last week's mini crash, liquidity has been hugging the baseline as Skynet is wondering why everyone went to play with Bitcoin...
The assumption is that BTFD can never fail.
Global gamblers will never panic again...
Breadth doesn't matter and volume will always be low.
Limit down futures is always a buying opportunity
Sector rotation can never fail
Bitcasino will go to infinity
This is not the end of the Ponzi super cycle
I was reading this and ruminating on its assertions...
ZH: Since 2014 Central Bank BTFD Broke Volatility
The operating assumption of the above article and those who adhere to the Central Bank "put" hypothesis, is that every dip should get bought, because there will never be another RISK OFF period lasting more than :5 minutes ever again. I challenge that hypothesis.
One can make the case that the interim accumulation of unhedged risk exposure has built up to an extent that stock ownership is now a binary risk event. We got a taste of that just last week.
A week ago during the tax cut melt-up, big cap tech lost its bid amid a mini flash crash. The Nasdaq 100 has yet to recover those losses, while the S&P went on to a new tax cut high. Since the weekend passage of the Senate tax bill there's been a nascent rotation from cyclicals back to tech. When that rotation ends, we'll see how these overowned bricks trade again...
Meanwhile, ever since last week's mini crash, liquidity has been hugging the baseline as Skynet is wondering why everyone went to play with Bitcoin...
The assumption is that BTFD can never fail.
Global gamblers will never panic again...
Breadth doesn't matter and volume will always be low.
Limit down futures is always a buying opportunity
Sector rotation can never fail
Bitcasino will go to infinity
This is not the end of the Ponzi super cycle
Comparative Advantage In Exploitation
"An economist is someone who knows the cost of everything and the value of nothing"
Free Trade and Globalization are human history's greatest failures without any comparison. No policy has/will lead to more environmental and human degradation than these schemes have already wrought. Nevertheless, apologists for failure are ubiquitous. No magnitude of failure is too large for them to paper over with free money, and non-stop bullshit. They've alchemized failure into success for untold human toll.
Where this ends is in mass personal and corporate bankruptcy. Zombies have had eight years to realize the party is over and to get their affairs in order. To them it was just another chance to double down on proven failure, at the behest of serial psychopaths.
The seeds of failure for Globalization lie in the fantasy economic theory of Comparative Advantage - the failed premise that two countries can successfully conduct trade even if one nation has competitive advantage in industry. This was a proven failure in Spain during the 1600s when the British used Mercantilist policies to essentially bankrupt Spain and otherwise free it from its burden of excess gold. All of Asia now practices export Mercantilism with studied precision which has alleviated the U.S. of thousands of factories, millions of jobs, and entire industries. In exchange, receiving cheap junk and trillions in debt. That's the "system".
I just read Andrew Coyne's assessment of Trudeau's recent trade fiasco in China, here is the punchline:
"The notion, now being put about by the Conservatives of all people, that trade between our two countries should be restricted on account of the low wages paid to Chinese workers is protectionism of the rankest kind. So far as China’s comparative advantage lies in low-wage, labour-intensive production, it is to our interest as much as China’s to import those goods from them, and to focus scarce productive resources in areas of our own greatest relative efficiency."
In other words, according to Coyne and today's free traders, China has "comparative advantage" in poverty exploitation and environmental degradation. Which frees up Canada to provide resource extraction and money laundering services via real estate. The U.S. jobless consumer is freed up for Cappuccino production and debt accumulation. The spent human "byproduct" from this scheme is freed up to discover fentanyl overdose in a back alley. Coyne and his ilk will be the last to learn that this is not a sustainable "system", and therefore their entire life's work is but a joke.
Of course, what all economists don't understand is the financial concept of arbitrage, which means buying in one market and selling in another market until both are equalized. Which is what has been happening compliments of global multinationals.
In the eight year event, that has led the entire developed world to be equalized with the Third World, but just in the exact opposite way that proponents of Globalization predicted. That is the magic of competitive advantage and mercantilism masquerading as comparative advantage while copious dunces look the other way.
Ex-human history's largest money printing bubble, the arbitrage is already complete. The developed world now exhibits the same propensity for rapacious exploitation found in the rest of the world.
Therefore I don't know what will save capitalism. But I do know that all indications are that capitalism does not want to be saved. Because taking failed ideas to level '11' is a recipe for revolution.
"The poll shows Americans oppose the Republican tax-cut effort by nearly two-to-one, as 29 percent approve and 53 percent disapprove. That's a worse showing than Obamacare ever recorded, and more unpopular than former President Bill Clinton's tax increase plan when it passed in 1993."
Tuesday, December 5, 2017
Ponzi Safe Haven
Apropos of this blog's title, the last "leadership" in global risk markets is from a ponzi currency. We've seen this movie before, but no zombies remember the ending...
The only downside to widespread adoption of Bitcoin is mass extinction. So it's either the dumbest fucking thing ever invented, or it's the dumbest fucking thing ever invented. No one knows which one it is. In other words, we're doomed. God needs to cut her losses on the hairless monkey experiment...
Rewind to August 1st, 2011:
ZH: The Imminent Debt Ceiling Increase Will Unleash A Massive Gold Rally
Fast forward to this week as the three month debt ceiling extension expires Friday:
ZH: BitCoin Isn't Going Up, Fiat Currencies Are Collapsing
“It's not so much that Bitcoin is going through the roof - it's that fiat currencies are in free fall, but only Bitcoin is noticing.”
In other words, the correlation between gold and the debt ceiling no longer exists, but the correlation between the debt ceiling and Bitcoin is lock solid. Prechter would have a field day with this repeat episode man-boy fantasy.
Yields rolling over. Check.
Debt ceiling expiration. Check.
Fed balance sheet rolloff. Check.
Fool's gold safe haven. Check.
Transports leading. Check.
Bitcoin gamblers are piling into Bitcoin under the assumption that the impending introduction of futures on Bitcoin is massively bullish. It might not turn out that way:
"The futures reduce the frictions of going short more than they do of going long, so it's probably net bearish...Having this instrument that makes it easier to short might keep the bitcoin price a little closer to reality."
"You have a lot of zealotry, and a lot of people, including me, who think it's the greatest thing to ever happen in the history of mankind. You have a lot of people who think it's a bubble and a Ponzi scheme. It turns out both of them can't be right."
Got that? It's either the dumbest fucking thing of all time, or the greatest thing of all time. No one can agree. And by the time humankind embraces its full potential, it will consume the planet. So the only downside to widespread adoption is extinction.
Herein lies the problem with futures on BitCasino: the Bitcoin futures will have built-in circuit breakers at 7%, 13%, 20% same as the stock market. Bitcoin of course has no circuit breaker. So let's say someone is long the futures and then Bitcoin for some reason drops 20% like it does every couple of days. At that point the futures stop trading for the day, whereas Bitcoin may continue to fall further as it often does. Which means that the futures could open limit down and stop trading at the open. In other words, if liquidity is bad in BitCasino, it could be 10x worse in the futures. Minor issue.
Here's another thing I should have mentioned:
Now that Trump is unleashing WWIII in Korea and Armaggeddon in Israel, I'm having a Bill Paxton moment. My wife told me to be optimistic. That didn't have the effect she intended.
The only downside to widespread adoption of Bitcoin is mass extinction. So it's either the dumbest fucking thing ever invented, or it's the dumbest fucking thing ever invented. No one knows which one it is. In other words, we're doomed. God needs to cut her losses on the hairless monkey experiment...
Rewind to August 1st, 2011:
ZH: The Imminent Debt Ceiling Increase Will Unleash A Massive Gold Rally
Fast forward to this week as the three month debt ceiling extension expires Friday:
ZH: BitCoin Isn't Going Up, Fiat Currencies Are Collapsing
“It's not so much that Bitcoin is going through the roof - it's that fiat currencies are in free fall, but only Bitcoin is noticing.”
In other words, the correlation between gold and the debt ceiling no longer exists, but the correlation between the debt ceiling and Bitcoin is lock solid. Prechter would have a field day with this repeat episode man-boy fantasy.
Yields rolling over. Check.
Debt ceiling expiration. Check.
Fed balance sheet rolloff. Check.
Fool's gold safe haven. Check.
Transports leading. Check.
Bitcoin gamblers are piling into Bitcoin under the assumption that the impending introduction of futures on Bitcoin is massively bullish. It might not turn out that way:
"The futures reduce the frictions of going short more than they do of going long, so it's probably net bearish...Having this instrument that makes it easier to short might keep the bitcoin price a little closer to reality."
"You have a lot of zealotry, and a lot of people, including me, who think it's the greatest thing to ever happen in the history of mankind. You have a lot of people who think it's a bubble and a Ponzi scheme. It turns out both of them can't be right."
Got that? It's either the dumbest fucking thing of all time, or the greatest thing of all time. No one can agree. And by the time humankind embraces its full potential, it will consume the planet. So the only downside to widespread adoption is extinction.
Herein lies the problem with futures on BitCasino: the Bitcoin futures will have built-in circuit breakers at 7%, 13%, 20% same as the stock market. Bitcoin of course has no circuit breaker. So let's say someone is long the futures and then Bitcoin for some reason drops 20% like it does every couple of days. At that point the futures stop trading for the day, whereas Bitcoin may continue to fall further as it often does. Which means that the futures could open limit down and stop trading at the open. In other words, if liquidity is bad in BitCasino, it could be 10x worse in the futures. Minor issue.
Here's another thing I should have mentioned:
Now that Trump is unleashing WWIII in Korea and Armaggeddon in Israel, I'm having a Bill Paxton moment. My wife told me to be optimistic. That didn't have the effect she intended.
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