The only downside to widespread adoption of Bitcoin is mass extinction. So it's either the dumbest fucking thing ever invented, or it's the dumbest fucking thing ever invented. No one knows which one it is. In other words, we're doomed. God needs to cut her losses on the hairless monkey experiment...
Rewind to August 1st, 2011:
ZH: The Imminent Debt Ceiling Increase Will Unleash A Massive Gold Rally
Fast forward to this week as the three month debt ceiling extension expires Friday:
ZH: BitCoin Isn't Going Up, Fiat Currencies Are Collapsing
“It's not so much that Bitcoin is going through the roof - it's that fiat currencies are in free fall, but only Bitcoin is noticing.”
In other words, the correlation between gold and the debt ceiling no longer exists, but the correlation between the debt ceiling and Bitcoin is lock solid. Prechter would have a field day with this repeat episode man-boy fantasy.
Yields rolling over. Check.
Debt ceiling expiration. Check.
Fed balance sheet rolloff. Check.
Fool's gold safe haven. Check.
Transports leading. Check.
Bitcoin gamblers are piling into Bitcoin under the assumption that the impending introduction of futures on Bitcoin is massively bullish. It might not turn out that way:
"The futures reduce the frictions of going short more than they do of going long, so it's probably net bearish...Having this instrument that makes it easier to short might keep the bitcoin price a little closer to reality."
"You have a lot of zealotry, and a lot of people, including me, who think it's the greatest thing to ever happen in the history of mankind. You have a lot of people who think it's a bubble and a Ponzi scheme. It turns out both of them can't be right."
Got that? It's either the dumbest fucking thing of all time, or the greatest thing of all time. No one can agree. And by the time humankind embraces its full potential, it will consume the planet. So the only downside to widespread adoption is extinction.
Herein lies the problem with futures on BitCasino: the Bitcoin futures will have built-in circuit breakers at 7%, 13%, 20% same as the stock market. Bitcoin of course has no circuit breaker. So let's say someone is long the futures and then Bitcoin for some reason drops 20% like it does every couple of days. At that point the futures stop trading for the day, whereas Bitcoin may continue to fall further as it often does. Which means that the futures could open limit down and stop trading at the open. In other words, if liquidity is bad in BitCasino, it could be 10x worse in the futures. Minor issue.
Here's another thing I should have mentioned:
Now that Trump is unleashing WWIII in Korea and Armaggeddon in Israel, I'm having a Bill Paxton moment. My wife told me to be optimistic. That didn't have the effect she intended.
