Black Swan Diving Into Pavement

It appears that Global Social Mood peaked this week...

In other words, human history's biggest bubble, is getting set to implode...Central Banksters can get gamblers into risk, they just can't get them out...

If it's one thing this era proved definitively, is that there is no such thing as a "Plunge Protection Team". What there is instead are Central Banks willing to provide unlimited monetary dopium for gambling purposes. Some people like to conflate these two concepts as the same thing. However, as we learned via the Shanghai Composite, sometimes the "floor" provided by unlimited liquidity can be some 60% below the current level. In the event, the Chinese government had to ban short-selling, ban institutional selling and halt trading for days at a time. Tens of thousands of gamblers were wiped out. If that's plunge protection, then there's a disagreement on terminology... 

Here we see in this current era, via the micro caps, that eight years of free money has incentivized gamblers to now try high altitude Black Swan diving into recession:

Micro cap index:

Below we see the most speculative parts of the market all peaking around the same time. Again.

Biotechs peaked two years ago when they were the hot sector du jour. No surprise IPOs peaked at that time as well. Now IPOs are peaking with internet stocks while Biotech limps back to the Flash crash level from August 2015 to have another go at it...

The BitCoin Trust trades at a 130% premium to Bitcoin as of yesterday's close...

Oil and Gas stocks puked all over Trump's Paris accord rejection, so now gamblers are seeking the safety of Netflix and Go Daddy...

U.S. Oil ETF (:30 minute scale):

One month of bullshit later and it's back to the same jumping off point for oil:

Ask Google: which tech stocks peaked last in 2007?

JnJ

Lockheed Martin

Blackrock

German Dax

London FTSE

Korean Kospi

Bombay Sensex

U.S. Dow:

In the broadening top formation five minor reversals are followed by a substantial decline.

It is a common saying that smart money is out of market in such formation and market is out of control. In its formation, most of the selling is completed in the early stage by big players and the participation is from general public in the later stage.

Artificial Intelligence Is On Borrowed Time

Stop me any time...

Amazon $1,006

It's been a great year for big tech stocks, and a pretty meager one for the small caps; the Nasdaq 100 index is up 20 percent this year, while the Russell 2000 has risen by less than 3 percent

Just five companies now make up more than 40 percent of the Nasdaq 100: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, and Alphabet.

The outperformance of the big-tech-fueled Nasdaq 100 could speak to "this winner-take-all economy that we're in, where a few large companies are getting a bigger and bigger share of the profit pie...This is actually not a good thing for the economy or for the society as a whole"

Bitcoin very likely peaked last week

Artificial Intelligence is on borrowed time

In Bozo The Clown We Trust

"Job gains in May were not as strong as the market hoped, coming in at just 138,000 vs. expectations of 182,000. On top of the miss, the prior two months were revised down by a total of 66,000"

Since the election gamblers have been totally ignoring the economy, preferring instead the reassuring Twitter barrage of Bozo the clown...

The casino exploded higher and the economy imploded lower...

Trump and his cabal of rabid supporters have done a great job of conning the sheeple...

Gamblers are trapped between the Scylla and Charybdis of dumb and dumber.

Really, what chance did they have?

Recession stocks are leading, along with internet stocks.

Zerohedge calls this the "barbell" approach.

I call it the dumbbell approach...

Treasury bonds and (big cap tech) stocks are now going in totally opposite directions...

Today is about closing Amazon over $1,000

At all costs.

USDJPY

...When gamblers get trapped in the casino. You know, like last time...

And the worst performing Dow stock of the week is...

A subtle warning of what happens to those who trust serial psychopaths and Bozo the clown...

Peak Denialistic Bullshit

The Realtor-In-Chief confirmed that he will exit the Paris Climate Treaty today, joining the rarified company of Syria and Nicaragua. Never fear, he is going to renegotiate the treaty vis-a-vis the entire rest of the world, in his spare time, between drunken tweets, and arm-twisting intelligence agencies to stop investigating his campaign...

Little does he realize that what the world needs now is not more oil it's less oil, because no sooner did he "leak" word of his decision, that U.S. oil promptly rolled over and imploded, closing 2% off the highs of the day, and giving back more in the overnight.

Because today we got this news, that just like the climate agreement, the U.S. is free-riding on the oil industry's agreement to cut production. Now we're going to find out what happens to entire economies when free riders take control of the market:

"The U.S. oil industry exported a record 1.3 million barrels of crude per day onto the world market last week — just a half million barrels less than the cuts OPEC and Russia agreed to make to daily production."

It was exactly this week last year when oil rolled over for the summer (first circle on the left):

Actually, it was June of the past three years when oil rolled over, featuring two price declines of -60% in 2014 and 2015, and a -20% drawdown in 2016 (vertical blue lines):

U.S. Oil ETF w/inventories

Because this isn't just about oil...

It's about the fake global recovery...

And the denialist morons who believe in it...

Terminal Idiocracy aka. The Fake Wealth Effect

Apart from six mega-cap tech stocks, ALL markets now agree on the state of the imploding economy...

Unfortunately, you can't warn an Idiocracy, because they don't trust anyone who can be trusted...

Societies are ordered based upon certain character "attributes" that are deemed more or less desirable during that period of time. In this era, ignorance and arrogance in leadership are valued above all else. Why? Because even as the first order economy and status quo are disintegrating in real-time, the illusion of prosperity and success is projected over the now chasmic cracks in the facade. In other words, only the most determined of sociopaths need apply. 

In this era of the outsourced economy, distribution of wealth is not predicated upon value creation, it's predicated upon financial engineering, rent-seeking, and most importantly, the casino. This society venerates and trusts those who are closest to the casino and otherwise contribute most to propagating the illusion of fake wealth - the CEOs arbitraging the economy, the economists reading their Magic 8 balls, the Central Banksters printing money, the billunaires counting their fake wealth.

It's a societal ordering predicated solely upon smoke and mirrors, mass delusion, and dedicated exploitation.

The problem with a society led by sociopaths is that they have no clue when it's all ending. In fact they don't want to know. Therefore all effort is put into gaming the casino. 

Here we see a typical article indicating that "stocks" at all time highs are disagreeing with bonds about the state of the economy. 

Stocks are near record highs, driven by surging tech shares, a sharp contrast with the bond market, where interest rates have been sinking on worries the economy just isn't getting enough juice for growth to pick up.

"At some point, the bond market is going to be right because you have narrow leadership. At some point, those five or six stocks are going to run out of steam,  said Art Hogan...

Hogan sees a very shallow sell-off of less than five percent.

The logical conclusion of course. 

In other words, aside from six stocks, the entire stock market is agreeing with the bond market, but we would have no way of knowing that from reading the title of the article.

Average stock (% of NYSE above 200 dma):

Here we see that stock market sector rotation from cyclicals to recession stocks are agreeing with bonds:

Here we see that the disconnect between internet stocks and the rest of the market has been seen before, and resolved to the downside...

"The financial sector just gave up all of this year's gains, and some strategists say that's sending the broader market a message about the health of the economy."

Bueller?

"At some point, those five or six stocks are going to run out of steam"

And then fall 50-60%...

Bueller?

One Clown To Rule Them All

The leader of the "free world" was off his meds last night. But don't worry, this all makes perfect sense to demented morons who consider nonsensical gibberish acceptable for a man commanding 6,000 nuclear warheads...

First he puts this out at midnight last night:

To be fair, we all have our drunken rants. So far worse yet, in the morning theoretically when he would be sober again, he puts out this even more asinine "clarification", suggesting a more permanent condition is at work:

Because we all know that the problem with the first tweet was a misspelling of 'coverage' and not the fact that it failed to express the slightest semblance of a cogent thought. 

Holy fuck. We're doomed. 

The de facto Idiocracy will be buried deep of that I am 100% certain.

Trump's relationship to Twitter, explained: