Zuckerberg Shrugged

"When the hoodie-wearing captain of industry disappeared, teenage girls everywhere were at a loss of what to do with their lives. As a last resort they contemplated joining the human race..."

See if my daughter reads this...

Fadebook isn't waiting for after hours to implode, being the most overbought rising wedge in human history:

Which portends badly for stop losses sitting below illiquid ETFs...

Google. Check.

Amazon. Check.

Alibabylon. Check.

Deja vu of last year, today's Fed meeting set up a December rate hike...

This should be interesting...
http://www.nanex.net/NxResearch/NxLiquidity/

Ponzi Recovery aka. Plundering Grandchildren

"They were solely preoccupied with fucking over the next several generations when they got fucked over. Shit happens, man..."

I accidentally turned on the volume while watching CNBC and I was entreated to Steve Liesman telling lies. Because, that's his name and that's his job: selling bullshit to stoned coffin dodgers. 

Who cares what he said, but it was something about GDP growth being better than expected. Via Fred, here is U.S. GDP growth less the deficit as % of GDP going back fifty years.

Obama has presided over the first Ponzi recovery in U.S. history. There wasn't one year when REAL GDP was positive net of debt. And the trend is worsening again...

Who would believe this fabrication? A comfort-seeking Idiocracy that's who. They don't care about the truth, they just want to hear bedtime stories to the very end. 

Here's the one that's going to bury them:

This is the growth/value ratio, indicating that the "big rally" is in the big rear view mirror:

S&P Momentum is crossing the smash crash level:

NYSE Composite says it's time for the shitting of bricks. But we've only seen this movie three times, so how would any zombie know? 

"Have I ever fucked you over? Recently?"

The Status Quo Is Status Imploding

All of the lies are self-destructing at the exact same time...

Triple leverage on triple hourly volume

As expected, carry trades and financials are getting monkey hammered today because the Fed's decision is already priced in:

Deutsche Bank

USDJPY

Europe

Cash balances with Internet stocks

Cash balances actually fell overnight...

TRAPPED CAPITAL

VIX / Cash Balances:

The Scylla And Charybdis of Clinton And Trump

Stoned gamblers voted early on Hillary, now it's too late to change their minds...

Despite the proximity to all time highs, the rate of descent from their ALL IN gambit caught the gamblers by unprecedented surprise. Now the cost of hedging (VIX) has been going up at the fastest rate since Brexit and before that August 2015:

"A surge in the so-called "fear index" that accelerated Tuesday — coupled with a relatively less severe selloff in stocks — gave traders a taste of just how much the broader market is unprepared for the U.S. presidential election and other events."

"The VIX, considered the best gauge of fear in the market, has climbed more than 40 percent over the last six days, while the S&P 500 has lost less than 2 percent in that time"

In addition, cash balances haven't changed, which means:

This chart shows the VIX as a ratio of Rydex cash (money market) balances:

For the vast majority, it's too late to hedge...

Index Put/Call ratio:

And therefore the only viable option is to do what's known as "SELL"...

Selling intensity (TRIN):

Caught In The Trump Vortex aka. Social Mood Implosion

Ironically, this of all weeks Prechter shows up for work: Social Mood is rolling over hard right before the election...

"Market correctly signals outcome 86 percent of time since 1928"

This sets up a very interesting feedback loop which I call the Trump vortex. The stock market had priced in a 100% odds of a Hillary victory as indicated by ludicrously bullish indicators across the board from VIX complacency, put/call ratios, cash balances, Rydex bearish assets etc.

However, now with each passing day towards the election, the stock market has begun to stumble as Trump's poll ratings are rising. As Trump rises, stocks fall, as stocks fall, Trump rises. It's a social mood vortex...

Google Trends Search "Change early vote":

I use the Mexican Peso / dollar exchange rate (red) as a proxy for Trump's poll ratings, overlaid on the S&P:

"The stock market is not going Clinton's Way"

A closer look at weekly momentum (Relative Strength):

Unfortunately for Zombieland, the Pro-Globalization candidate was 100% priced in:

Internet stocks with cash balances:

Facebook reports after the close tomorrow. What could go wrong?

True Elliott Wave types would say that this has nothing to do with Clinton or Trump. They're just along for the Social Mood bus ride.

That's where I stand.

Growth / value ratio:

However, I also look down on 8 years of bullshit to cover up non-stop corporate outsourcing. Something Prechter never factors into his model aka. reality. 

Because Social Mood doesn't mean jack shit when you hit the fucking pavement:

As long as Facebook meets its 70% analyst-expected growth rate and gives an uplift on forward guidance, this will all be fine...

One year ago the Fed set the stage for a December rate hike. Just like they're going to do tomorrow...

"No Zombie Saw That Coming"

This wasn't supposed to happen - "the best 24 hours of the year" are turning into an unhedged bloodbath. All because gamblers covered their shorts ahead of the Fed and hence ahead of the election. Last night's Bank of Japan gong show served to weaken USDJPY, which portends badly for tomorrow. Because regardless of what the Fed decides, the dollar and financials are already priced for a rate hike, meaning carry trades and financials will get monkey hammered after the decision. Which, as usual, is not priced in...

Speaking of which:

In other words, gamblers were totally unprepared for Brexit and now they're even more totally unprepared for Trump...

"What, me worry?"

TRIN: Selling intensity:

Weekly Momentum:

The market has only crashed five times from this level...2008, 2010, 2011, August 2015, January 2016...

Oil with junk bonds

Retail

Amazon

USDJPY aka. Overnight Risk

Roman Circus 2016

"Rome seeks its own glory, wars against other peoples to subjugate them, revels in material existence, lives off the work of slave labor, allows many to die of poverty and starvation, and promotes entertaining circuses and gladiator spectacle."

Students of the past realize that momentous history is being made in real-time. The new Roman empire is collapsing and by that I mean the U.S. empire and its vassal states aka. the developed world. The Pax Americana is dead and buried. 

Nowhere is that more obvious than in this current election whereby the RepubliCon Party has been usurped by a demagogue, while the Democrat Party has now become the party of the status quo. Under normal circumstances the conservative party is the reactionary party whereas the liberal party is the party of progressive change. Not now. 

The causes of collapse are many, but by far the biggest mistake was allowing Third World poverty to cross the transom. The RepubliCon Party of Supply Side Ponzinomics was predicated upon Free Trade and Immigration, so it can come as no surprise that the GOP imploded first. Their entire platform was repudiated by the very base that had voted against their own interests repeatedly for thirty years. The power of Faux News.

Once poverty flooded in, the end was solely a function of time. Those betting on imminent dollar collapse will be disappointed. The deflationary thesis indicates that as the global fractional reserve ponzi scheme collapses there will be a dire shortage of dollar-based collateral. Anything priced in dollars is what will in fact collapse. What happens to t-bonds however is a question of timeframe which I leave to speculators to decide.

This is a momentous historical moment that didn't begin with this election. The vitriol and bile that attends U.S. elections has been rising steadily for decades as special interest groups competed at the public trough. And now the trough is empty.

Nothing lasts forever. Not even a Roman circus.