THIRD WAVE GLOBAL RISK OFF @100% CORRELATION

Hindenburg Omen:

Over 100 simultaneous highs and lows with McClellan Oscillator > 0

Wilshire Total Market Index

Wilshire, long-term

The Zuckerberg Omen

Key reversals in Facebook and Google today - opened at highs and closed at the lows...

The Zuckerberg Omen occurs when only two stocks are holding up the entire Nasdaq and one of them is Facebook...

Nasdaq 100 with % of stocks above 200 dma

Ready for the Google ground and pound. Again.

We've seen this movie before, momentum is rolling over...

The selling begins

TRIN: Selling intensity, highest since late December...

The "Rally" got sold on heavy volume

Price / volume:

Oil got shellacked back below $30...

U.S. Oil ETF

The World ex-U.S.

The Last Temple

Occupy the dumb money

Greedthink Obliteration Phase

Greedthink:
"Like-minded greedy dunces blowing smoke up each others' asses until they get obliterated"

Now that everyone has had a chance to load up on Facebook, and junk oil stocks, the max pain phase will begin...

All World index:
"You know, I swear I've seen this before, but dammit can't remember when...honey, what does this look like to you?"

But first, after hours as expected, another Tech Moonshot. They renamed Google "Alphabet" and since then the stock has gone parabolic, because dunces thought it was a new company. I call this "the kiss of death"...Every stock in the past 15 years that assumed the mantle of "most valuable company" has tanked almost immediately after...Microsoft, GE, Exxon, Apple...

At its peak, Apple was worth $775 billion. To put that in perspective the amount of market cap it has lost ($240 billion) is worth more than AT&T ($211b) or Walmart ($201b) or JPMorgan ($214b):  

The Wilshire count looks complete with today's overthrow...

The rally is 9 days old today, so this shows price / volume 9 dma (with today's closing volume). If you can see this rally, then you don't need glasses...
Churning and burning...

The equal weight cap weight ratio. 
When this peaks and rolls over, stocks fall hard in unison...

Oil rolled over hard today...and stocks forgot that they are 96% correlated to oil...

Oil volatility rose today signalling that someone knows they're fucked...

The chart of the day of course is this one:
Kimberly Clark / S&P:

The chart of all time will be this one...
All World index

"It Was A Conflict of Meltdown. Shit Happens"

No one lies as much as someone who's ALL IN...i.e. EVERYONE...

Team Groupthink is making the big bucks again...
ZH: Feb. 1, 2016
Hedge Funds Pile Into Oil At Fastest Pace Since 2010

Today:

July, 2015:

August, 2014
"Oil is not a free market. OPEC sets the price of oil,"

st

U.S. Oil Fund ETF

Prepare for Shanghai Surprise aka. "Sumamabitch!!!"

People get dumbest at the end...
Unfortunately, there's no way to warn stoned zombies who are locked in their own happy Groupthink feedback loop. People go ALL IN at the end for some reason. Something about throwing their life savings away makes them feel wealthy...What I call "Shanghai Surprise..."

As it was in China, the Fed has systematically conditioned gamblers to take on more risk. Any sign of economic weakness has been seen as a benefit to the stock market. So when the Fed finally admitted last week that the economy is seriously weakening, the Pavlovian gamblers doubled down on Facebook.

Shanghai Surprise visualized:
The Chinese goverment encouraged people to embrace risk, so they did...

Doh!

The "animal spirits" are what drive stocks higher. The marginal gambler's willingness to go ALL IN...

Pedal to the Metal visualized
The Nasdaq/S&P ratio.
For this entire seven years, except for the blue box, the most speculative stocks aka. the Nasdaq, have led the rally. Until December. That's when the rotation to defensive stocks kicked in...

The Facebook / S&P indicator:
The animal spirits are driving right off a cliff...Google's earnings are after the close, so that should be the last moon launch...

Loading up for the ride lower...
This "rally" is in its 9th day, so I took the 9 day moving average of price over volume to compare to other rallies...

I call this the "Churn ratio": A lot of volume to go almost nowhere...
Spot the Santa rally at the end of each year, when volume is light and Skynet ramps the market...

Shanghai Surprise redux
"Granted, back in the day, when we used to throw it all away, rates weren't already at .25%. Every generation has to learn for itself, or not..."

"How Much Facebook Should I Own In A Collapse?"

It's the last inning and most speculative stocks are getting sold in size. Wall Street remains bullish that defensive posturing is a "passing phase"...

RISK OFF Visualized: 
The Kimberly Clark indicator:
Peaks early as investors remain cautious, gets sold for revenueless Biotech, peaks late again...

KMB:S&P:

Aside from Facebook, the only stocks making new highs right now are the highest quality most stable companies. High volatility companies underperformed in January...

"In the worst start for the U.S. stock market since 2009, investors have been aggressively loading up on shares of companies with the sturdiest earnings momentum. And that’s raising concerns."

"History shows that such a shift has been a bearish signal for stocks in the past, often marking the end of bull markets."

"Defensive posturing is evident in this year’s industry leaders, with phone companies, utilities and producers of consumer staples showing the only gains through last week and commodity, bank and health-care firms falling the most"

"Wall Street strategists remain bullish. The index will rise about 13 percent to 2,200 by the end of the year, according to the median of 19 estimates compiled by Bloomberg."

Philip Morris

Kimberly Clark (Paper products)

Campbell Soup

Kelloggs

Smuckers

Facebook

Oil Death Spiral: Mutual Assured Bankruptcy

REVENUE = PRICE X QUANTITY

In perfect competition, price = marginal cost...

Oil producers are caught in the widely-ignored poverty trap - the less money you make the harder you work...something EconoDunces are going to learn the hard way when their text books are recycled into 4-ply ass wipe...

Goldman just came out and stated the obvious, it's too late to cut production now...

"commodity analysts, led by Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie, argued that not only is the oil cartel is highly unlikely to cut output but even if it did, the move would do little to push prices higher."

“While prices may rally initially upon announcement, we would expect this move to fade and the oil forward curve to remain in contango until inventories decline, just as was the case [during the Asian crisis] in 1998-1999,” 

"the decision by OPEC in November 2014 and again in December 2015 to sustain production at high levels is about maximizing revenue over the medium term"

The real reason OPEC can't cut, is because they no longer control the market. At 40% market share, they can't even enforce quotas within OPEC, much less outside of OPEC.

They are caught up in the same sad yet ironic poverty trap that the majority of people on this planet are caught up in - increasing supply to compete with excess capacity just to SURVIVE. When costs are fixed there's no room to cut revenue...

These are the break-even (fiscal budgetary) oil prices across the Middle East:

As of Oct. 15, 2015

Speaking of Goldman Sachs

The stock is back in 2006, trading like it's 2008: No M&A, no IPOs, no Trading revenue, flattening yield curve...

Collapse Is Accelerating

The duration of each rally in the Chinese Yuan grows increasingly shorter and the declines steeper...China is trying to ease monetary conditions while supporting the currency - an impossible task...

Jan. 21, 2016:

"It's not a plan, it's just happening..."
The Yuan (red) with S&P (black)

German 10 year yield with the DAX:
"Business as usual"

Japanese 10 year with Nikkei:

Central Banks have resorted to blatant lying as their final policy "tool", while stoned zombies load up on Facebook and Wall Street reiterates fantasy price targets. 

This is the most dangerous phase...