Monday, October 28, 2019

All Time High Denial

This Trump Casino will be imploded by the exact same technique Trump used on all of his other casinos - lack of liquidity due to too much borrowed money. Aided and abetted by buffoonish over-confidence...

The borrowed Trump tax cut hit paychecks on February 1st, 2018. The same day the global casino exploded. Since then, liquidity has grown more and more scarce. The term we will all be hearing in the very near future is "no liquidity". 

“In our mind, this persistently low market depth leaves U.S. equities vulnerable from here if central banks fail to validate market expectations or U.S. recession risks resurface”





Unfortunately, denialism is now a rampant and contagious mental health disorder...



Conspiracy theories are the last refuge of abject denialists. Because they can't handle the truth in any direction, they must concoct asinine and conveniently unprovable theories for why everything is fucked up beyond all recognition. Recently one of the fathers of a murdered child at Sandy Hook elementary successfully sued some lunatic denialist who claimed that the father had falsified his deceased son's death certificate. Denial doesn't get any more hideous than this, unless we're talking about destroying the planet to bolster Exxon profit. The author of this garbage was a professor no less. Denialism is now a rampant mental health disorder.

"Nobody Died at Sandy Hook" was pulled from bookshelves in June and the publisher, Moon Rock Books, has apologized to the Pozner family."


Sheer greed and ineptitude are never to blame according to these grand conspiracy theories. There must always be some secret grand plan. George Soros is always the master planner. He is rich, Jewish, and liberal. He checks all of the master planner boxes. Given the collapsing state of affairs, he is busier than a one legged man in an ass kicking contest. Sadly, global meltdown is not someone's grand "plan". It's not even Trump's plan - he's just inherently skilled at imploding things. His entire business career was one imploded casino after another. This one will merely be his biggest, and his last. No one will be amused by out-of-control dumbfucks and their Lost Boy theories when this circus explodes with extreme dislocation.




Speaking of incompetence. This failed gambit takes the cake: A year ago Standard & Poor's was worried that Big Cap Tech was too dominant in terms of index weighting. So they had the brilliant idea of moving internet stocks (Google, Facebook) out of  the technology sector and arbitrarily moving them to "Communication Services", which used to be Telecom and is one of the least owned sectors. Their theory was that all of that dumb passive ETF money would follow. Of course that never happened - no one sold the Tech sector to rebalance to Communication Services. Which means that the remaining two mega cap Tech stocks left in the Tech sector - Microsoft and Apple are now the two most massively overbought and overowned companies in world history. And also why the only sector that made a new high today with the S&P 500 was...you guessed it, Technology. One year later, problem made far worse. Because that's how we roll baby...

On the subject of abject denial:


"A year of wild Trump tweets on his trade war with China. Stocks have shrugged them off. It’s been a year of decelerating global economic growth — thanks to that Trump trade war — and gloomy predictions from the likes of the IMF, and stocks could seemingly care less. Earnings growth in Corporate America has slowed noticeably through the first three quarters of the year. Mr. Market says who gives a damn"

The market is evincing the same denialistic psychosis as this society. Go figure. After all, who do you think is buying this crap?


"The stock market is at a new all time high"




Turning to the new highs list, it's a bunch of miscellaneous crap, 5g semiconductors, and of course Microsoft and Apple.

Google attempted a new high today but then imploded after hours. Deja vu of May:




Among the 5g names, KLA-Tencor - no bubble here:




As always, cyclicals (banks, autos, homebuilders, transports) have rallied into the Fed.

The definition of insanity:




Here is where it gets interesting, the Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 confirmed the S&P 500's new high today. The Dow and Nasdaq have yet to confirm.

The equal weight NDX also has yet to confirm. Which gives us a working wave count.

This is the 1987 count:






Gamblers still haven't noticed that defensives are breaking down. These are the "safe havens" which have garnered the largest inflows year to date:




The legend of the unstoppable "consumer" lives on:



What Cramer does is use a typical denialist stunt - alter the chart timeframe to produce whatever fabricated conclusion you want. Then he throws in a bunch of technical babble for good measure. 

“Polaris caught a bullish MACD crossover at the beginning of this month, and that’s one of the most reliable signals in the chart book.”

"The charts show things are looking “very good” for some discretionary stocks, indicating that the consumer and the overall economy are in great shape."



"Good news, the mid-cycle adjustment is over"







Sadly, when it comes to denial, there is no strength in numbers