Thursday, October 3, 2019

Front-Running MAGA Crash

"One minute I held the key
Next the walls were closed on me
And I discovered that my castles stand
Upon pillars of salt and pillars of sand...

For some reason I can't explain
I know Saint Peter won't call my name
Never an honest word
that was when I ruled the world"


The casino is setting up to explode lower, but you would never know it because the "bad news is good news" bullshit narrative is in hyper-overdrive. Gamblers are still free-basing monetary heroin.

Sadly, this society has a fatal addiction to free money and bullshit.







Three days this week we've seen collapsing U.S. economic data, leading to selloffs, which is why today's bad news got bought with both hands - more free money. That and short-covering ahead of tomorrow's jobs report:



“We are at a critical point. Global growth is slowing and U.S. growth is decelerating because of trade disputes and uncertainty caused by trade policy...But the market loves easy money, and when it gets a whiff of it, it gets high.”

I couldn't have said it better myself.

Last year's tax cut sugar rally spontaneously imploded in the fourth quarter beginning in October. This year's monetary sugar rally is right on track for a much bigger explosion:





Which will end the MAGA delusion






And as far as the Zerohedge fantasy plunge protection team

They will show up after the margin calls. Therefore I don't recommend front-running forced liquidations. Unless you think the FOMC is more responsive than the margin clerks. 

Gamble at your own risk






Expectations are low for tomorrow's Non-farm payrolls, and you don't have to be a genius to see why:





On the other side of the crash, all those who are right now saying there is no sign of recession, will say recession is now inevitable. Which means those who don't see it coming are already done. 

But when the underwear will get really stained is when everyone realizes that compliments of exceptional election rigging, the Fed no longer has enough ammo to pull us out of it. 

At that point the casino will have no bid whatsoever. 

Which is why embracing bad data right now, is a bad idea. As is being stoned on a monetary sugar high. 



"Fall homebuyers are getting a bonus. The sell-off in the stock market is causing an unexpected turnaround in mortgage rates."

For the record, lower rates were not much of a bonus last time around. 





And then there is this aspect of the modern insolvent lifestyle to consider when oil is limit down:



"Russia is considering the notion that oil prices may be as low as $25 per barrel in 2020, the country’s central bank said in its new forecast published on Monday

Russia’s Central Bank has forecast in its macroeconomic forecast that oil could possibly hit that low due to falling demand for oil and oil products worldwide, as well as from disappointed global economic growth"






In summary, rampant denialism will bury 100x more carbon on both the supply side and the demand side than any amount of convincing denialists could ever hope to accomplish. And for that we can thank the Faux News circle jerk of exceptional bullshit and criminality. 

A man-made solution to a man-made problem. 

Truly Darwinian.