Saturday, September 14, 2019

MAGA Crash From All Time Lies

In a hyper-Darwinian post-truth society run by alt-reality con men, the plight of one's fellow citizens is not to be ignored, it's to be monetized to the maximum extent possible. Because anything else would be "socialist". Today's rapacious geezers and Lost Boys are feeding off the carcass of the past. In this human toxic waste dump, market gains are not driven by facts and reason, they are solely driven by the number of people who can be conned...

"No one saw it coming"





At this late juncture no one would deny - including his own base - that Trump is a buffoonish circus clown and sociopathic liar. Whether on the tax cut, the economy, the trade war, the record trade deficit, the chasmic budget deficit, interest rate policy, he's been lying non-stop since elected. 

All of the presidents in U.S. history combined have told fewer lies than Trump has told to date. When you're the last Banana Republican president, it takes a lot of lying to restore the glory of the past:



This past week, the momentum under-pinnings of the casino were fully removed and replaced by short-covering sponsored by pseudo-bears who lack conviction in the con man hypothesis. These people are what I call ideologically "flexible". Meaning they don't believe in anything. 

The delusion that attends this parlous juncture is that cyclical stocks - which have been weakening for two years straight, will now carry the overall market higher. These are the sectors that peaked months and even years ago, as the reflationary tax cut rally collapsed under the weight of its own malfeasance last year and morphed into the deflationary rate cut rally. Which largely left behind Financials, Transports, Retail, Autos, Homebuilders, Industrials. The real economy.

Not one of these sectors is anywhere near all time highs, and yet these are the stocks that will carry the casino to new all time highs, while the momentum trade goes bidless?

I don't think so.





We saw the exact same thing last year:

Momentum Tech went bidless in September, right before the market tanked:





What's been taking place during 2019 is that the smart money has exited the casino. Leaving behind a low liquidity fragile market driven back to all time highs by low-conviction short sellers.

While all time highs in underlying stocks collapsed (lower pane):





All it takes to convince sheeple to believe anything or anyone.

Is time.








"Momentum stocks have fallen out of favor at an almost unprecedented pace."

Goldman Sachs says the reason is that investors have grown less fearful of economic conditions."








Yes. And no. 





There's only one thing at this juncture that is primed for reversal of fortune breakout. 

Brick shitting volatility: