Friday, September 20, 2019

Trumplosion 2019

Most people believe the election is next year. Markets will render final verdict on Trumptopia far before that...

One year ago, the casino peaked and crashed. This crash will be the right shoulder of the MAGA top:




The earnings blackout period begins two weeks prior to the end of the quarter, which is "now". That will only exacerbate incipient liquidity collapse. Nevertheless, central bank volatility compression and quad witching Friday have kept the casino artificially pinned to all time highs this week, similar to last year.

The Momo tech massacre was temporarily suspended this week:



Defying the bond market massacre, "Low vol" bond proxies made a new all time high led by Utilities (not shown) and Defense stocks.

Again, deja vu of last year:



Trade talks resumed this week for the first time in two months, amid the backdrop that Trump is getting ready to massively escalate tariffs to the 50-100% range:



"the president believes he has so far exercised restraint with regard to tariff rates...These are low-level tariffs that could go to 50 percent or 100 percent”






For those looking for one difference between last year and this year, here it is. Correlation between U.S. and Chinese stock was negative last year and is now close to 100%:




I have a prediction for today's central bank fabricated billunaires: Sans another bailout, the Trump casino might not even open.




And then, the underwear will be mighty stained.