Last year I created this graph showing on an inflation-adjusted basis the most costly hurricane seasons in U.S. history. All were in the past 15 years:
The largest number of mass shooting fatalities, all in the past twelve years:
Talk about hardcore denialists. The MAGA Idiocracy exemplifies denialism - an abject unwillingness to face reality, even in the face of extreme risk. Preferring to double down on self-destructive bullshit, than to make the slightest adaptation. Forty years of Banana Republican failure, why change now?
The most imminent risk of course is in the casino where the market has been range bound for a month straight, as gamblers rotated to all of the various perceived "safe havens". These will be the final risk assets to crash.
Amid ever-strengthening deflation, the consensus viewpoint - aided and abetted by copious useful idiots on Zerohedge - sees imminent inflation, as faith in central bank bailouts is unquestioned.
For my part, I'm betting against that pervasive delusion and the consensus fools chasing it. Amid record low global interest rates, central banks now lack the dry powder to reflate the economy. Worse yet, the impending asset dislocations will reveal all of the myriad ponzi schemes that have been operating in broad daylight, including the stock buyback fraud, the Energy industry ponzi, the IPO/venture capital pump and dump, and the global real estate money laundering scheme - just to name a few.
Quantitative Easing will not have the same effect that today's gold addicts have been well-conditioned to expect from it. Shockingly, printed money for billionaires will fail to offset insolvency.
Panic will ensue.
And then, today's make-believe capitalists will come begging for yet another bailout. At which time all of the apologists for greed will be exposed for what they've been all along - inter-generational thieves.
Sadly for rapacious criminality, the no-bailout team will be on the streets in force. This time demanding the pound of flesh that has been owed for the past decade.
Around that time, Big Donny will have a total mental breakdown, as all of the lies from his bilious life flood back over him. At that point, even the greatest of fools will abandon the Trumptopian Titanic. Chalking up their past forty years of wandering in the Banana Republican desert to a lifetime of exceptional failure.
I predict that the entire central bank bailout trade will get wiped off the map before markets find bottom. Which means:
Crude oil speculators, still net long
Treasury speculators, still net short
Gold speculators, multi-year net long
Volatility speculators, still net short
Last but not least, home gamers still betting on their saviour, Forrest Trump
Let's get to some charts:
Now fully overbought, the S&P is heading back to re-test the 200 day.
This time the test will likely fail
How do we know the test will fail?
Momentum Tech is breaking down out of the rising wedge:
Low vol recession stocks new highs
Remember when the Trump tax cut was going to be "reflationary"?
They bought that lie too
We will now see deflation on a scale never before imagined
Sadly, MMT will be post margin calls, post Trump mental breakdown, post panic, post bailout failure, and post QE failure
The second mouse gets the cheese
