Friday, August 2, 2019

Race To The Bottom

When Banana Republicans applauded Trump for Russian election assistance in 2016, he went on to use a borrowed tax cut to rig the mid-terms, and now he's using escalating trade wars to force Fed rate cuts ahead of 2020. What happens when a party sanctions the uncontrolled abuse of power. Gamblers don't mind this brinkmanship, since only bad news is good news...



"Tariffs are a brilliant way to force the Fed to keep cutting rates, if your end goal is to drive the U.S. economy into the ground."







Here is what gamblers are taking home for the weekend:




When this waterfall crash in broad daylight reaches its crescendo any day now, it will be variously compared to the 2015 Yuan crash, 2008 Lehman Moment, and/or 1987 Reagan crash. But it's none of those, so I will save myself the trouble of answering that question after-the-fact:



"She compared the policies to “beggar-thy-neighbor” actions taken during the Great Depression in the 1930s and said the global economy is “in a very dangerous situation.”



As it was in May, semiconductors are bearing the brunt of trade war punishment within Tech:





Banks, Transports, Retail - anything connected to the economy got routed today:





The margin calls have begun...







The Elliott Waves were right:





Emerging Markets are bidless, especially China






Kiss MAGA goodbye:

Lowest U.S. bond yields since before the election:





In summary, the longest expansion in U.S. history is in a "mid-cycle adjustment"




"Two words from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell — “midcycle adjustment” — may have briefly roiled financial markets, but the last two times the central bank adjusted its policy, the markets did just fine."

“With the 1995 analogy of a midcycle cut in rates, people have to remember that it was just four years into an economic expansion, not 10 plus that we are in now”