There is only a daily reminder of what they bought.
Trump 2020
As always, we go back to Hendry for his perspective on skeptics of money printing as the secret to effortless wealth:
ZH: Hugh Hendry Chooses The Blue Pill For Maximum Bonus:
"When will the money printing delusion end?"
Unlike Y2K with its speculator-driven Tech bubble and crash. This cycle has lasted much longer, aided and abetted by at least five major sources of dumb money: Central Banks and their untold printed trillions. Stock buybacks ~$6 trillion. Program traders/algos/Skynet and their various momentum strategies, now comprising 80% of all trading volume. Momentum speculators pumping and dumping one asset class after another. And last but not least self-managed retirement gamblers aka. passive investors.
ZH: Algos Have Driven A Record Divergence Between The Economy And Stocks
The bond market knows more than all of the dumb money gamblers combined:
Northman Trader:
"What happens if everybody long suddenly wants to sell for whatever reason? One has to wonder."
They, as the "enlightened" [skeptics], chose red, and so are convinced that they understand everything which has become illusory about today's markets. Their truth is Austrian economics. They know that today's central bankers are spinning a falsehood of recovery; they steadfastly refuse to be suckered in by the euphoria of a monetary boom; and they are convinced that they will therefore be spared the consequences of the inevitable crash. Everyone else, currently drugged by the virtual simulation of prosperity and its acolyte QE, will be destroyed, leaving them the skeptics alone, to re-invest when markets finally get cheap. They will once again be masters of the universe."
But I no longer think that anyone can say when..."
"When will the money printing delusion end?"
Unlike Y2K with its speculator-driven Tech bubble and crash. This cycle has lasted much longer, aided and abetted by at least five major sources of dumb money: Central Banks and their untold printed trillions. Stock buybacks ~$6 trillion. Program traders/algos/Skynet and their various momentum strategies, now comprising 80% of all trading volume. Momentum speculators pumping and dumping one asset class after another. And last but not least self-managed retirement gamblers aka. passive investors.
Is it any wonder that fundamentals and valuation ratios are a quaint concept?
And, more importantly, no one sells because they've been told that the ONLY lesson stemming from 2008 was never to sell.
He then shows a chart of the bear/bull asset ratio. However, it's indecipherable because the ratio is so puny now that it's hard to see.
So what I do instead is take a similar ratio that takes the bear assets AND money market funds as a ratio of bull assets, but I take the inverse: Bull / Bear + MM.
Here we see the bull horns from 2015 and from 2018. And we also see that gamblers are no longer as heavily "ALL IN" as they were last October. Why? Because they realized significant losses in December and have not recovered.
These are speculators:
These are speculators:
This idea that imploding bubbles don't hurt investors is another lie of this time. They cause significant erosion of investor confidence and capital.
Here we see TD Ameritrade's proprietary positioning index:
"The Investor Movement Index, or the IMX, is a proprietary, behavior-based index created by TD Ameritrade designed to indicate the sentiment of retail investors"
Two three wave retracements, each of a lesser magnitude.
These are the clearest Elliott Waves we will see:
These are the clearest Elliott Waves we will see:
ZH: Algos Have Driven A Record Divergence Between The Economy And Stocks
The bond market knows more than all of the dumb money gamblers combined:
Northman Trader:
"What happens if everybody long suddenly wants to sell for whatever reason? One has to wonder."
