Wednesday, February 6, 2019

Make Arrogance Great Again

What happens when every risk asset class in the world final implodes at the exact same time? We're about to find out, compliments of unprecedented arrogant delusion. Trump's loyal base - having learned less than nothing from their last forfeiture to de-regulated larceny - decided to double down on corruption. In order to regain their greatness at getting conned by proven con men...

Trump Is The Madoff Of Politics
"Trump and Madoff are lying, thieving, soulless luxo-thugs for whom chasing the almighty dollar and lying practically every minute of every day was their reason for being...Madoff learned he could rake in the bucks by lying his head off to investors.  Trump was learning he could gain political currency by lying about everything from Obama’s birthplace to the evils of immigration."

Trump is going to make Bernie Madoff look like a candy store shoplifter by comparison:

ZH: Global Risk Assets Exhibiting Unprecedented Correlation
"Remember when Deutsche Bank found late last year that 2018 was the worst year for markets since the great depression, with 90% of all assets posting a drop for the year?"

So far in 2019...

"a remarkable 87% of all MSCI World stocks are up year-to-date"

In human history there has never been so many all-knowing dunces running amok as there are today. Worshipping their Casino-Bankrupter-in-Chief, who had this to say at the State of the Union:

"In just over two years since the election, we have launched an unprecedented economic boom -- a boom that has rarely been seen before."

Of course Trump is aided and abetted by an army of frauds in the Financial Services industry, now wholly unshackled from any semblance of fiduciary duty. Which means that in this era there isn't one Bernie Madoff, there's an entire industry full of them. And yet, now that the tax cut sugar high has worn off, not even Wall Street's usual expectations alchemy can hide the forward guidance implosion. So instead, they must spin the narrative:

Recall, this is the Smoot-Hawley trade war bounce circa first quarter 1930 when economists signaled all clear.

Compliments of the decoupling delusion:

"Several economists said the decline was likely a direct result of the trade war with China, and nudges U.S. growth higher, at least temporarily, while China is slowing."

"America's trade fight with the world has finally started to slow global trade and only time will tell whether this is a good thing for the economy in the long run"

"Only time will tell if slowing global trade is good for the U.S. economy"

"Palfrey tracks the biggest growth companies and said there’s an unusually high number that have fallen from the top ranks of earnings growth to the bottom 20. There are now seven companies, including Alphabet and Apple. The others are Exxon Mobil, GM, Micron, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips that have suddenly fallen form the top to the bottom ranks. That many companies have only had a “reversal of fortune” three times since 1990." 

Those three times since 1990:
Now, Second quarter 2010, and ten years ago - this quarter 2009:

“We actually see the market doing pretty well in 2019”

And what to do at the end of the cycle but loosen credit conditions:

"The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the government agency tasked with regulating financial companies, said it plans to abandon Obama-era payday loan stipulations that would require lenders to ensure borrowers could repay their loans before issuing cash advances.

“This proposal is not a tweak to the existing rule; instead, it’s a complete dismantling of the consumer protections finalized in 2017”

“We actually see the market doing pretty well in 2019”