Thursday, January 17, 2019

Trumptopia Is Circling The Toilet

Sadly, and somehow unexpectedly, Circus Maximus is ending, badly. No clowns will be laughing when their beloved reality TV gong show blows up in their face...

This historically unprecedented farce exists solely by and for the amusement of the senile Idiocracy. And anyone else who can be conned into believing anything. 

 MAGA 2020:




The last (G20) rally ended when Trump and Xi agreed to a three month trade war truce. At that same moment, the Huawei CFO was being detained in Vancouver at the behest of the Trump administration. In other words, the "truce" had the shelf life of a weak handshake.

Now this timely bit of market manipulation:





This has been the biggest bull trap since the 1930 counter-trend rally ending in -90% collapse.





Speaking of rallies ending, I've been looking around for a viable wave count and finally found one, in the most obvious place: Recession stocks.

Safe haven (recession) stocks peaked last in this rally (~Dec. 3rd), and then imploded lower. The crash really started however, when the news broke about asbestos in J&J baby powder. The only problem is that it wasn't news, it was just a made up excuse for the crash in the pre-eminent safe haven stock: Denialistic Crash Mode. Now, these "safe havens" have enjoyed a three wave rally off of those December lows amid declining volume, impaired breadth (bottom pane), a moving average death cross, a tag back to the 200 dma, and a .618 fibo retracement.

What else could you want? 




Brexit somehow turned into an even bigger clusterfuck this week. The "good news" was that Theresa May survived a non-confidence vote. 


Which leaves Europe hanging in the balance:



The PBOC injected record stimulus this week, which has been accurately interpreted by markets as a late stage failing act of desperation. 


"a raft of measures last year from big rail projects to tax cuts seem to have had little impact so far, with recent data suggesting activity is cooling more quickly than expected."


Some people in Asia couldn't wait for Davos, to begin the panic. Which portends badly for the U.S. casino ahead of the long weekend. 




"A string of Hong Kong-listed stocks plunged without warning in afternoon trading, the latest shock losses to sideswipe investors in the world’s fourth-largest equity market."

“It’s likely more similar stock crashes could happen this year. A lot of share pledges in Hong Kong are underwater, and as soon as the positions are liquidated it triggers an avalanche.”

Which aligns well with the ending of a three wave rally in Emerging Markets which began in October.

One full year of bullshit later:




One year ago this month global carry trades warned that the RISK ON party was ending.

That warning was ignored. Just like this one:




Global Economic policy uncertainty just reached a record high this week:




Why?

Because global central banks (ex-China) are tightening into deflation for the first time this decade:

The term "policy error" is an asinine understatement:






Here we see Y2K 2.0 imploding in real time via small cap momentum stocks: 




And to top it all off, Goldman Sachs had its biggest short-covering rally since the TARP bailout rally in October 2008. 

Which was right before final implosion.



"Best day since the last crash"
"Awesome, bro"