Someone is going to shit a brick in the next six weeks, and my bet is that it won't be me.
Professional money managers have now cut exposure back to early 2016 levels and hedge funds are getting liquidated in size.
The only players left in the casino are the dumb money wed to the belief that Trumptopia will last forever.
Two things will happen in the next six weeks which will decide the fate of global markets. First off, more than likely the Fed will increase interest rates at their December meeting (Dec. 19th). Secondly, the massively hyped G20 meeting later this month will be nothing more than a photo-op, leading to automatic escalation of the trade war in January 2019. In the meantime, global macro data will decline every day between now and then. By contrast, gamblers are betting that "all is clear", now that the mid-term elections are passed.
But first, this week is Black Friday aka. Black Thursday. Previously known as "Thanksgiving" the third Thursday in November is now reserved for 3am shopping brawls.
Prepare for Wild Turkey
"President Donald Trump gave the market a boost Friday when he said he was hopeful the U.S. and China would strike a deal on trade, a major focus for stocks. But White House officials later downplayed his comments and said there were no signs of a deal"
This is so two weeks ago when Trump said that a trade deal was in the works ahead of the mid-terms, only to be contradicted by his own advisors. Will the true Donny Trump please stand up for something that has a shelf life longer than :5 minutes.
Unfortunately, this farce is running out of time and money.
"The U.S. still plans to raise tariffs on Chinese imports in January with President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping likely at best to agree to a “framework” for further talks "
“We certainly won’t have a full formal deal by January. Impossible.”
In other words, this is late 2015 except with the addition of tariffs:
U.S. Industrials are getting annihilated
"The U.S. still plans to raise tariffs on Chinese imports in January with President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping likely at best to agree to a “framework” for further talks "
“We certainly won’t have a full formal deal by January. Impossible.”
In other words, this is late 2015 except with the addition of tariffs:
U.S. Industrials are getting annihilated
Why are Industrials getting annihilated?
Because the U.S. trade deficit clearly shows, "we're winning", by losing. A patented Trump casino strategy for ensuring certain bankruptcy.
Speaking of fake-believe, the historically crowded reflation trade is getting duly monkey hammered along with all other fake beliefs:
