What this era represents from end to end is a demographic disaster, compounded 10x by 0% for eight years straight. A non-existent rate of return, itself a function of cannibalizing the economy for short-term quarterly profit. Now having herded the lemmings into the casino in a zero sum Ponzi scheme betting that the longest bull market in history will last forever. All while cannibalizing the status quo at an accelerating rate. In other words, disaster capitalism ran out of things to eat overseas and came home for the last supper...
The casino is sliding down the slope of fake hope. The problem with a society full of vacuous salesmen is that they never know when to shut the fuck up. The inconvenient "end of the cycle" had to be abolished from the vernacular in order to prove that Suze Orman and her copious acolytes are "trusted advisors". And not merely clueless industry shills, oblivious to how we got here in the first place. Therefore, "stocks" must go vertical for the next two decades, or all bets are off...
"Stocks in the S&P 500 have dropped in 18 of the 23 days since peaking in September, roughly twice the frequency of the last three corrections.
the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500, just fell for the first time in 2 1/2 years."
The black bar to the right shows the number of down days versus the red bar (up days). Not sure why they used this reverse color scheme. Note the prior selloffs - Yuan deval, global growth implosion, Volatility explosion. Well this time we have all three at the same time:
This shows the breadth oscillator (overbought/oversold) (top pane) and complacency (lower pane) versus prior selloffs. The market is neither extreme overbought nor oversold right now.
As we see, a TRIN of three (lower pane) is the minimum to stop a selloff. Going back further (not shown) a TRIN of at least five is needed.
Here we see the damage done by the past numbers of down days. Major breadth deterioration (top pane) and major money outflow (lower pane).
The problem in a nutshell, is that people have been led to believe they can ride out a recession in overvalued stocks. They've been brainwashed to believe that the only "mistake" they made in 2008 was selling. And yet the irony is that if they hadn't sold, the market would not have rebounded in the first place.
Which is the lesson they are going to learn now.
“What’s the positive catalyst for the future to take this market higher to the next level? Right now, there isn’t one...People are concerned about earnings, that was the one thing holding this tape up.”
If only the entire rest of the world got the memo
"Stay the course"
"We'll let you know when to start worrying. Just like we didn't do last time"
