Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Banana Republican Global Convergence

The people at the top of this Ponzi scheme are about to join the rest of the world. When growth ended in 2008, there was only one (corporate) option - reduce costs and buyback shares to give the delusion of growing profit. And it "worked" by strip-mining the economy. This circus is going out of business...

Buybacks suspended, Central Bank liquidity withdrawal. Gambler margin calls. There is not enough processing power to keep this delusion intact.

Any questions?






The S&P 500 closed below the 200 day moving average yesterday with a gap and crap below it this morning. The casino just tagged the break-even line for 2018 for a mid-day bounce. Volume is 200% of average. What we are witnessing all over the place are "policy errors" by our frat boy leaders. Trapped by their own ignorance and arrogance. Now that there's no one left to con, management by broadcast bullshit is having no effect on anything.


$1 trillion of stock buybacks and nothing to show for it. Which proves the axiom that paying a trillion dollars for a brick doesn't make it worth a trillion dollars. 





What we are seeing now is that the correlation between the U.S. and the rest of the world is converging back at "1". To the downside. There had been negative correlation for a few months during the summer while copious disinformers wrapped the noose tighter with myriad fantasy narratives:




The biggest fantasy was that the U.S. is decoupled from China and the rest of the world and hence immune from trade war. The narrative that just exploded today:



"Caterpillar said tariffs and trucking rates were pushing up costs, and 3M Co. raised concerns about China’s slowing growth, dragging down shares across the U.S. industrial sector."






The Fed is boxed in by higher costs due to the tariffs:



The fake Trumpflation trade has now given back 12 months of gains:




Gamblers are sanguine. Well conditioned chimps buying the dip.



Margin calls beckon:






Yes, this again.




Stock buybacks artificially suppressed volatility which has led to widespread complacency and otherwise funded the delusion that "this" is all working. 

The bill for that vacation from reality is now due.





Unfortunately, there is not enough computing power to handle what comes next...