Friday, September 7, 2018

Nothing Left To Sell

If I were a Republican I would be paranoid that Trump is a Manchurian Candidate sent to implode the GOP. Because that's what he's doing. Just one more hoax to ponder - wondering if the saviour just happens to be the Anti-Christ. Because, how would they know?

This week he imploded China, Europe, Japan, Canada, Emerging Markets, Crude Oil, Apple, Semiconductors, and Social Media stocks...



"The Wall Street Journal reported, citing U.S. officials, that the possibility of the U.S. and China reaching a trade deal are fading as the Trump administration tries to revamp the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Meanwhile, Bloomberg News reports that the U.S. and Canada will likely end the week with no trade deal in place."

the Nasdaq is on track for its worst four-day start to September since 2008."

Bueller?


Having been a computer programmer for 15 years, I can assert that computers don't make mistakes, but the people who program computers make many mistakes. I suggest we're about to see a rather spectacular one. How do I know? Because since the last smash crash in February absolutely nothing has been fixed, other than to add far more risk this time around. Third grade deduction implies that this crash will be bigger than the last one...

"Because that's how we roll baby..."

First, rewind to early Feb. 2018:



"It's a shame. It can't handle the volume and it can't handle this level of selling."

VolPlosion 1.0 began on February 2nd which was also a Friday jobs report day...

2870 is the key Maginot Line for the S&P 500. It's the confluence of the breakout above the February high, and the multi-month uptrend line:






Deja vu, the VIX is rising faster than the S&P is falling:







Breadth is rolling over





Carry trades rolling over




Junk stocks in blow-off mode




Of course, a few risks have grown since that time...

For one thing, volatility shorts had already started to cover back then:





VolPlosion 1.0 is when the rest of the world left the party:










"a tax on cars would be the ruination of the country. That’s how big it is. The ruination of the country”





Suffice to say, Fed tightening and trade wars have ramped up substantially since January

As has the narrowness of the advance aka. "crash risk"




Because...back then, Apple wasn't the only Tech stock holding up the casino.

That will change. This came out in the last half hour of trading on Friday afternoon:






In summary, back then, some people still had yet to be CONvinced Trump was the saviour...

"Look at those huge 'wages'. Third World in quality"







Wall Street criminals bought it this time.