In summary:
This month is setting up deja vu of August 2015 except 10x the risk. Three years ago this month the Yellen Fed was all set to raise rates in September (and beyond) when global risk markets inconveniently imploded due to (priced in) rate hikes. Now, the Powell Fed is on the exact same course while totally ignoring global risk...
"Policymakers generally noted that spending by U.S. households and businesses appeared to have “considerable momentum,” according to the minutes."
Meanwhile, the casino is off in its own happly little world now led by tax cut driven mega short-covering in left-for-dead retail. And complete bullshit:
Denial has been replaced by blatant lies...
Consumer sentiment appears to have considerable momentum. To the downside:
"The recent divergence in the performance of US Equities vs. the rest of the world is unprecedented in history"
"We believe an escalation will likely be averted and that a trade resolution and weaker [U.S. dollar] will lead to a 'risk on' convergence,"
And they lived happily ever after...
Here is where it gets interesting. Tomorrow via Alibaba earnings we find out about the health of the Chinese consumer.
China Tech is primed for "Convergence"
To believe what JP Morgan is saying, one must believe that continued Fed rate hikes will have the exact opposite effect they had in 2015.
"Can't we all just enjoy tax cuts for the wealthy and higher interest rates for everyone else on the planet?"
And then we would have to believe that more rate hikes will have the opposite effect they've had in 2018.
"Fool me six times, shame on me..."
For some reason I will take a flyer on the other side of that bet.
Gamble at your own risk.
