Thursday, August 16, 2018

Prepare For Brown Swan Event

A Brown Swan event is a rare and "unforeseeable" event that for some reason only strikes those who have their heads installed in their own ass. Recession stocks have been leading all week, including today. Bueller? Ex-Apple, Tech has lost its bid. What comes next is the soiling of the underwear...





I get why this happened - Two consecutive bubbles and busts put the Boomers behind the eight ball for retirement. Post-2008 zero interest rate policy for eight years made them desperate to catch up. Car salesmen turned investment advisors were just glad they weren't still selling Pintos with Herb Tarlek. Along came the Casino-bankrupter-in-chief who promised to fix the mega bubble by extending it for another ten years using asinine amounts of borrowed money. 

Really, who wouldn't believe that?

After hours, two more Tech leaders are getting smoked - Nvidia and Applied Materials. Assuming toothpaste and cereal are not the new Silicon Valley growth delusion, this is about to get seriously FUGLY...

As I've shown, the Nasdaq is dependent upon fewer and fewer mega cap stocks, now basically just Apple. 

VolPlosion in February was a minor event compared to what is coming:




Recent Tech moonshots are all returning to Earth. Bidless...



Netflix, Google, and Facebook have all lost their bid. 

The latter two no doubt in part because of the reshuffling of sectors within the S&P:



The IPO bid is gone. No more IPOs until after Labor Day...



Biotech is done.



Outside of Tech, the fake reflation trade just broke its two and a half year trend-line: 

Energy, Materials, Transports, and Banks:



Which leaves recession stocks.

Such as diapers: