Wednesday, August 15, 2018

"Don't Worry, Be Fat, Dumb, And Happy"

All empires descend a slope of denial. And all risk asset markets descend a slope of hope...


"Wednesday’s sell-off can be blamed on Turkey, China and commodities, but investors should take advantage of cheap stocks instead of worrying, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said."

Speaking of denial, there have been five Nasdaq Hindenburg Omens in the past two weeks. The largest cluster since...August 2015:









Unlike 2008 when the dominoes were banks, this time the dominoes are countries. The overnight gaps are getting bought with both hands in the U.S. because fake hope springs eternal. 

In other words, waterfall crash in progress...





The S&P 500 waves are aligned at all degrees of trend:

2008/Decade





2015: Smash Crash




2018: VolPlosion





What people forget, or never experienced from Y2K, is that on the downside all growth stocks are 100% correlated because they are all in the same funds. When the funds get sold carte blanche, ALL of the stocks get sold carte blanche. The asset class is called "momentum". 

Tencent is one of the largest Chinese Tech stocks:







“Semiconductors typically work together on the way down,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Anand Srinivasan said. “There’s not that much separation between ‘good names’ and ‘bad names.”’



"Wait, I thought we're decoupled from reality"



The fake reflation trade - consisting primarily of Financials and Energy stocks - is close to breaking the 200 day...




Oil is getting shellacked. The tariff was lifted temporarily to process inbound shipments. No additional oil is being bought:


"Not a single tanker has loaded crude oil from the United States bound for China since the start of August...compared with about 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June and July"

“(The [Chinese] government) probably wants to impose (tariffs) when there is no more U.S. crude on the water, so I won’t take it as a reversal of the political stance on U.S. crude” 





Copper is getting annihilated this week, signaling that the global growth mirage is a mirage...




In addition to cereal and detergent stocks, Utilities are the last "safe haven" within the casino:



If that's what you want to call them...




FULL Disclosure: I am always long brick shitting volatility. Gamble at your own risk...