There is one overriding reason why today's denialists don't see it coming - because their entire life's goal is to continue with business as usual. No change. No reform. No moderation. Just voracious consumption as usual. Sadly, that degree of entitlement is neither warranted nor forthcoming...
Remember VolPlosion 1.0 from February? Well leading up to that event, Volatility gamblers were covering their shorts. This time, they've been increasing their short positions, because they are uniform in their belief that new highs on the S&P 500 are imminent...
In a thermonuclear weapon there is a fission trigger. Below we see the trigger for global financial meltdown is already cocked. In order to believe that this isn't about to happen, we would first have to believe that it didn't already happen. Unfortunately, that level of denialism takes a lifetime of practice.
"That was fun, this time with feeling"
The other crowded trade of course is the record crowded bond short trade.
Gamblers are universal in their belief that the rest of the world can implode without affecting the U.S.
This will be the fusion part of the thermonuclear detonation when gamblers all hit the exits at the exact same time.
They will be shocked to learn yet again - that the U.S. is not decoupled from reality...
They will also be shocked to learn that recession is mostly priced in to the U.S. yield curve...
And so is trade war
And, end of cycle...
The only thing left to price in is panic...
