Sunday, August 19, 2018

Beggar Thy Neighbour. Indeed.

This should an(other) interesting week...



"net asset purchases by the three main central banks will dwindle to zero by the end of this year from close to $100 billion a month at the end of 2017"

“There’s still complacency across EM...EM debt has been flashing red.”

Coordinated easing policies that were implemented in early 2016 to relieve the pressure on Emerging Markets, are now just starting to be reversed:






"stress in emerging markets, particularly Turkey, is likely to generate discussion on the sidelines of the gathering. Economists predicted, however, that unless global financial conditions worsened considerably, the Fed wouldn’t delay hiking in September."




China is sending a lower-level functionary without any real power to meet with a second-tier official at the U.S. Treasury, a sign of Chinese irritation that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was unable to deliver when they thought they had a deal a few months ago, said a source close to the talks.

Trump economic adviser Larry Kudlow on Thursday spoke dismissively about the talks, describing them as “second-level”




"Asia markets largely advanced on Friday, following a strong lead in from Wall Street and positive news on the U.S.-China trade front."



Remember when Steve Mnuchin fucked China ahead of Donny's meeting with his fellow dictator? Well, they're still not happy about that...







"A steep downturn in heavyweight Chinese internet stocks and recent weakness in half of the so-called FANG group have some investors worried that a key component of Wall Street’s near-decade long rally may be low on fuel."

"Facing losses on China tech trades, global investment funds that own those stocks may be tempted to sell some of their U.S. tech stocks to lock in profits."







"We're just testing quantitative tightening and trade wars to see how it's working. After the test we'll get down to work"







"In November 1997, at a meeting in Jakarta, Saudi Arabia convinced fellow oil producers to boost output, ignoring a crisis brewing in emerging markets...The output increase came at the worst possible time...Benchmark oil prices fell below $10 a barrel"

"The [current] balance of risk clearly indicates that the slowdown in the global economy would have by far the biggest impact on oil prices compared to supply shocks,"

if the Saudis increase output just as "trade fears and emerging market weakness draw down demand, prices could collapse, as they did late 1990s"






"Facing losses on China tech trades, global investment funds that own those stocks may be tempted to sell some of their U.S. tech stocks to lock in profits."







Tariffs will hurt corporate profit more than anything else in the world