Tuesday, April 17, 2018

House Of Cards

The casino has lost its institutional sponsorship. Another generation of gamblers bilked. Shocking...

"The allocation to global technology shares also fell sharply — to a five-year low...Yet, FANG and big-cap tech stocks remained the most crowded trade for a third month"

It's the 300 P/E safe haven trade

Netflix peaked concurrent with the casino, the last two times...

Deja vu  - gap higher, island. To be followed by the third island reversal of fortune?

The starting point for the January rally was the mid-point for the Feb/March rally, is the end-point for this April rally. Now that is some serious delusion...

"Fund managers' allocation to stocks is at an 18-month low, and many believe the market has peaked or will peak this year."

Now we know what this is all about:

"The allocation to global technology shares also fell sharply — to a five-year low, according to the latest monthly Bank of America Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey."

Any questions?

"the yield curve appears to be close to inverting, and an inverted yield curve is widely considered to indicate an imminent economic recession. So you will be reading more and more about them in coming weeks."

Individual gamblers are tapped out as well:

"Companies dedicated $305 billion to share buybacks and cash mergers compared with $131 billion in wage growth in the first quarter"

The joke will be on them

The rest of the world is waiting, patiently

"Enjoy the economic impact from the tax cuts while you can, because it won’t last long, according to two reports released Tuesday.

Morgan Stanley and the International Monetary Fund put out strikingly similar reports, saying the $1.5 trillion Tax Cuts & Jobs Act will basically give gave the U.S. a sugar hit."

The Morgan Stanley report — titled, “The Downside of Fiscal Stimulus” — is particularly negative. That report argues the benefits of fiscal stimulus are mostly priced in"

Revolving credit (Change $, blue). Consumer credit delinquencies ($, red)