Tuesday, April 3, 2018

Denialation: The Problem That Fixes Itself

I knew this was going to happen - everything would be collapsing, yet zombies would pretend that it's not. You can't convince hairless monkeys that reality is real. I've tried. Reality TV, now that's something different...

There is one more global domino to fall. The biggest one...

The greatest denialists are oil traders. Or did we not learn that back in 2014, when "forever" lasted three weeks?

Here is where it gets interesting.

Way back in early 2016, global markets went RISK OFF, Treasury yields were falling, growth/momentum got shellacked, Financials and reflation stocks lagged, the deflation trade was on in size, industry-captured bukkake whores were lying constantly. What is different now?

Nothing. Except, mass denial. 

Even the Fed is in denial - still planning rate hikes and balance sheet rolloff as if nothing has changed. In other words, what we are witnessing is the complete and total mind control of social mood to literally convince people that what they are seeing is not real. And yet, at the same time, risks today, from trade wars, interest rates, risk exposure, margin levels, policy errors, debt levels, stock valuations, savings rates, are all astronomically higher.

It's denialistic self-destruction gone global.

But, as I alluded to above, there is of course, one MAJOR difference between now and then: Three weeks after T.Boone called the top, crude oil fell for the next year and a half straight from Brent $115/bbl down to $26/bbl in January 2016. He was only off by -78%. 

And yet today, for some reason, oil has yet to succumb to the renewed deflation. Why? Because, as we see below, speculative oil future positions are STILL near all time highs. In other words, over the past two years, speculative gamblers saved their biggest and riskiest wagers on global fake reflation, for oil:

Yes, the Ponzi reflation trade.

"If you bid up oil which feeds through to gasoline and the CPI, they will come, and believe in reflationary bullshit. Again, and again..." 

But here is where it gets more interesting. Because I said two days ago, crude oil is the last bubble. Below we see it is tracing a mirror image of the February decline, which was in lockstep with the S&P 500. 

In other words massively over-committed oil futures gamblers are the last thread holding up this market. And no, they did not de-risk in February. Because as we know, they don't learn too good.

Back to the 2016 x Implosion collapse in broad daylight





I overheard a discussion on a message board, "maybe Energy can lead"

I will go out on a limb and say that oil is set to collapse at a rate of change no one has ever seen before...