Saturday, April 28, 2018

The Crowded Dumbfuck Bubble

Unfortunately, the Idiocracy doesn't trust anyone who can be trusted. This will be their last lesson...

Last week we learned from eTrade, Interactive Brokers, and Ameritrade, that retail margin balances remain at all time highs. This week we learned that despite the major reversal in yields on Friday, Treasury bond shorts are also all time highCrude speculators backed off a tad, but are still pegged near record net longs. 

All of which is consistent with the biggest reflationary delusion since 2008:

We also just learned that wages rose the fastest since 2008, but the cost of living is rising much faster. 

Therefore deja vu, the Fed has no choice but to implode borrowers. 

Meaning record long big cap tech, and record short Treasuries:

Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures dealers aka. "the smart money" are extreme net short. The shortest they've been since the top in January of this year:

And before that, 2008:

It turns out the smart money doesn't believe in Trump-o-Nomics.

And never has...