Friday, March 23, 2018

THIS Is Lehman 2018

This was a seminal week. For the first time in decades, the U.S. economy was placed ahead of the stock market. Unfortunately, gamblers didn't de-risk in time...

Here comes a good lesson delivered by my new friend Donny, to those gamblers who elected a proven con man for president under the auspice that he would be fucking everyone else on the planet, except his own wife. In other words, he's the *new* Christian, beloved by all of the sanctimonious hypocrites. 

In con man parlance this is known as "the bait and switch". It can be costly for any dunce who falls for it:

As I was saying in my prior post, the last time Friday was a down day, was the beginning of wave 3 of 1 down. Yesterday and today mark the beginning of wave 3 of 3 down. Which is what makes it the Lehman wave:

The Nasdaq's island reversal of fortune and resulting break of the two year trend-line

aka. Mega bull trap:



Large caps

Banks and the Yen carry trade

China Tech

"Overnight risk"

Consumer staples

It would take only a small market drop on Friday to trigger something big — a sell signal from the famous Dow Theory.

Among the investment newsletters I monitor, for example, no market timing system is more widely followed. Countless individual traders use it to decide when to build up cash.

To appreciate just how close a Dow Theory sell signal is, read my March 2 column in which I detailed the three-step process required to generate such a signal. Suffice it to say that the market has already jumped over the first two of those steps. The third and final step requires the Dow Industrials to close below 23,860.46.

Today's Dow close: 23,533.

 and the Dow Transports DJT, -1.84%  to close below 10,136.61.

I have a hunch this last distance will be covered in another time zone...