Monday, March 12, 2018

Set-Up For A Mega Crash. Check.

Eighteen years ago this week, the Nasdaq tech bubble burst. The only stock index making new highs right now is the Nasdaq. No other global stock index is near all time highs...


"the Nasdaq maintained its trade in record territory amid lingering optimism over Friday’s jobs data, which combined solid growth with a lack of wage pressure"

Hong Kong is identical to 2007:

The locus for major risks can be described to a 'T':

Tyrannosaurus Trump
Turnover within Team Trump
Trade wars and tariffs
Tech stock bubble
Treasury short bubble
Tax cut driven rate hikes

Beyond asinine levels of risk, in order to generate a mega crash, first and most important, the vast majority of gamblers must be blowing smoke up each others' asses while bidding up their own assets. Check.

Secondly, gamblers must be crowded into fewer and fewer stocks making new highs, which is what makes the Nasdaq extreme global divergence so dangerous.

Even within the Nasdaq, there is a colossal divergence between mega cap tech and the average stock. The average stock is corrective off of the January high:

Nasdaq new highs are at the same level as last August second peak:

The Nasdaq is one year overbought:

The Wilshire 5000 is the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market, and it is clearly corrective, currently at .618 retracement of the January peak:

Don't try this at home

During the last 10% "correction" in August 2015, gamblers went RISK OFF. Not this time...

Most people are either too old or too young to remember how this ends. Which sums up this Idiocracy in general.