Per Naomi Klein's book, this past decade was textbook corporate Shock Doctrine, post-Lehman. The cost of this vacation from reality is measured in mass shootings and fentanyl-assisted suicides...
The "ethos" that belies the global economy right now is the re-marketing of proven failure as success - to the benefit of an ever-more miniscule segment of society. Warren Buffett just announced that the Trump tax cut was responsible for almost half of his wealth gain in 2017. He forgot to mention that the 2008 bailout was responsible for the rest. But he agrees that printing money is the secret to effortless wealth...
What began as the rapacious liquidation of the economy to the benefit of the stock market, will only end up with the dumbfucked realization that neither was spared. The most common refrain in this era, among the geriatric-set is that "this will all end badly, but not in my time". If the Baby Boomers had a generational slogan, that would be it. Suffice to say there is ample opportunity for surprise.
The "ethos" that belies the global economy right now is the re-marketing of proven failure as success - to the benefit of an ever-more miniscule segment of society. Warren Buffett just announced that the Trump tax cut was responsible for almost half of his wealth gain in 2017. He forgot to mention that the 2008 bailout was responsible for the rest. But he agrees that printing money is the secret to effortless wealth...
What began as the rapacious liquidation of the economy to the benefit of the stock market, will only end up with the dumbfucked realization that neither was spared. The most common refrain in this era, among the geriatric-set is that "this will all end badly, but not in my time". If the Baby Boomers had a generational slogan, that would be it. Suffice to say there is ample opportunity for surprise.
At this latent juncture, what is even more ludicrous than the fact that they believed their gambit would work, is the fact that they are now actively unwinding that asset levitation stimulus under the assumption that the casino won't collapse. Two weeks ago, witnessed the lowest liquidity in two decades - as measured by the depth of the S&P futures order book. A widely ignored warning that this delusion does not go in reverse.
Below is the chart that gamblers, had they had any inkling to care about reality, would be most concerned about. This shows the net effect of the Trump tax cut. For the first time since 2008, cash is now yielding more than the S&P 500. Which means that stocks are now going up solely due to the greater fool theory.
Contrary to popular belief, this mass delusion is no longer about Central Banks priming the pump. This is solely about a demented society believing that this will be the first expansion in world history that lasts forever - the cycle is no longer cyclical. Profits have reached a new permanent plateau. Deja vu of 1929...
Friday short-covering aside, here is what we learned this past week:
"This will be one of the more hawkish Feds we have experienced in 20 years"
"The Fed now faces pressure to move more quickly to guard against a possible overheating of the economy"
In 2008 the Fed was preoccupied with inflation...[Bueller?]
In his first months as a Fed governor back in 2012, Powell was among those who pressured then-chair Bernanke for more clarity on his plan to “taper” the central bank’s bond buying"
Liquidity is at record low levels, but unlike 2012, no casino bailout is on the table this time. Thanks to fake reflation aka. Trump tax cut, and the most hawkish Fed chief since Paul Volcker.
We've all heard of "90% down days" - 90% of total volume in declining stocks.
What is coming are 100% down days. But don't take my word for it:
"Higher interest rates could lure cash out of the stock market and into bonds as yields rise."