Regardless of ideological persuasion, there's such a thing as the speculative cycle. In Elliott Wave parlance, it's Social Mood. In Keynesian terms, it's the "animal spirits". In reality, it's just greed.
As I've shown recently, the greed cycle is burning out across multiple different asset classes at the same time. Therefore it's not hard to imagine that risk liquidity is receding as maximum risk exposure meets margin calls.
As we see below, Bitcoin is getting compressed between the former support level which is now resistance, and the 50 day moving average. The 50 dma is eliciting a smaller bounce with each re-test. Therefore when it breaks, gamblers will get stopped out of their positions which is what leads to third wave panic, because there's no support until the 200 day, which is significantly lower: -70% from the all time high lower:
The next ~24 hours should be interesting...
Next, we look at Oil futures speculators:
In other words, oil futures prices are the highest since 2015, while crude oil net longs are almost 2x higher than 2015. Because in Ponzi World, bidding up one's own assets is "bullish".
You just can't make this shit up.
Unfortunately for over-exposed gamblers, below we see that the previous speculative cycle (within the overall 2008 'expansion'), ended by sheer coincidence in 2014, when oil gamblers pushed their luck just a bit too far:
