Sunday, December 17, 2017

Conflict Of Implosion

Unhedged funds have lowered their shields ahead of the holidays, since it's not their money anyways. And this time of year has always been bullish, except in 1929, 2007, and 2008...




“With the strong snapback recently, the S&P 500 will begin next week at a new all time high. In 2017, breakouts to new highs like this frequently have seen upside follow through, which paints a positive picture for the final two weeks of the year.”

"The six sigma Black Swan melt-up rally will last forever, or until we get paid year-end bonus, whichever comes first"



In addition to record equity risk exposure, gamblers also have record oil risk exposure:



Assuming the bill passes in both the House and Senate, and assuming no "sell the news" reaction, BTFDers still have a few hurdles to cover this week.

These are the known risks, not to be confused with Twitter-induced implosion...

Nasdaq momentum implosion risk:



Breadth and volume risk:



Europe risk



Emerging Market Risk



Junk bond risk



And of course carry trade risk...




"Don't worry, it's not 2008 all over again"