Sunday, December 24, 2017

1929 Is Now Priced In

In 1929 at the height of the Roaring '20s stock market bubble, Republicans elected Herbert Hoover, a businessman with no prior political experience. Stocks ramped higher late into his first year on the promise of deregulation and tax cuts. Then crashed 90%...

America's pseudo-elite are as tone deaf as a brick. They're making America Great Again by taking proven failure to level '11':

"George Orwell once offered an excellent explanation for this phenomenon: as the imperial end-game approaches, it becomes a matter of imperial self-preservation to breed a special-purpose ruling class—one that is incapable of understanding that the end-game is approaching" - Club Orlov, License to Kill



"The latest polling by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News shows the tax bill not only unpopular among American voters but accelerating in unpopularity during its brief period in the public eye. Few respondents, the Journal reported, believe it will cut taxes for the middle class or for their own families. More than two-thirds of respondents perceive the law as designed mostly to help corporations and the wealthy."

Wall Street Journal: Only 10% of Republican tax cut goes to middle class, congressional monitor says

Cohn, of course, similarly confessed to being in the dark at a Wall Street Journal CEOs event in mid-November as to why few executives were willing to raise their hands in an informal pledge to invest in their companies and boost hiring once corporate taxes were cut."

Beyond the 37 year proven failure of trickle down Ponzinomics, there is a much more imminent reason why Americans are skeptical of the latest tax cut. The Fed has been raising rates in lockstep with the year-long passage of tax cut legislation. The "pause" in rates during 2016 gave way to a steady rise in rate hikes throughout 2017.

Now consumer credit delinquencies are the highest since late 2008:




The Trump tax cut pulled forward consumption, which will be financed at a higher interest rate:




What has been interesting in this cycle, has been the massive short-covering rally in left-for-dead retail stocks into the tax cut. 

Of course we saw the exact same thing at the end of the last cycle:









The question on the table is will the RepubliCon tax cut for the ultra-wealthy, offset the rise in delinquences from Fed rate hikes?

Most Americans already know the answer to that question, even if the Trump administration and stock market gamblers remain clueless, by design...








'b' waves are fake rallies premised upon deteriorating economic fundamentals and unfounded optimism