Saturday, November 25, 2017

Total Fucking Idiocracy

I created my own cryptocurrency, BitPonzi. Then I was informed that it's already been cloned 1278 times. The Idiocracy's secret to effortless wealth used to be Central Bank money printing. Now it's a server, a domain name, an icon, and a Facebook page...




Let's see, there's Titcoin, Bitcoin, Bitcash, and Bitgold, among others, which one is Zerohedge hustling today? On the same day we're told that Elon Musk's green vision is "physics challenged", we learn that BitCasino is going to consume the planet by 2020...




Who writes this bullshit? Put down the crack pipe. 

I fully admit that BitCasino has been an elusive tulip bubble. After all, it trades 24x7 literally around the world. No sooner does the U.S. sign off than Japan-o-mania picks up the baton for another good $1,000 handle, on to Europe and back again to the East Coast. All good.

Each "dip" gets bought with increasing urgency. 




Here is the total Cryptocurrency market cap with the Google Search term "Bitcoin":




But, let's get back to the "good news" around electricity consumption:

"Interestingly, Bitcoin’s price increase over the last month has been just over 40%, which is greater than the increase in electricity consumption."

You see, as long as the price increase exceeds the electricity consumption rate, the world's utilities will continue to be drawn down to feed voracious server growth. Of course, for any reason, should price reverse then gamblers will be trapped in BitCasino without adequate hash power to let them out.

In other words, the fact that hashrate is lagging price is the fatal weak link in this ponzi fraud. Unfortunately, the term "scalable" does not mean increasingly less efficient, which is how this scam was designed. Scalable means increasingly more efficient...



You see, what we learn about finance, is that at the end of the cycle, despite all of the arcane terminology, it comes down to idiots being idiots. That was the key takeaway from "The Big Short". Yield hungry dunces conflating momentum with yield.  Which is why Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness" could have been written on the back of a dinner napkin. Gamblers bid up assets until the yield is non-existent. Hence, they need even more idiots to further bid up their asset values because ROI and end of year bonus is dependent upon incremental flow of funds. Which is really how the entire financial industry functions - flow of funds. Which at the end of every cycle is flow of idiots. Nothing more, nothing less.

And when asset values get bid up, so too are margin balances. So when it goes in reverse, these margin balances act as stop losses, triggering automatic forced selling into a down market. Next thing you know, record short vol gets unwound, record short Treasuries gets unwound, record long oil gets unwound, record short JPY carry gets unwound. So forth and so on, generating a global cascading market crash on a scale few can even possibly imagine. 

It's a lot of fun, but for now we all have to pretend that no one's seen this movie before...

OPEC spent the past two years recapitalizing shale:




"The previous record according to government data was set in June 2015, just before the oil price crash"