Into The Ether

The *new* capitalism consists of swindling the general public. Unfortunately, the Idiocracy doesn't trust anyone who can be trusted...

Today This year was the Amazon rally. Currently sporting a 300 P/E ratio. It gained two Macy's in market cap just today. The Hindenburg Omens are from the prior two weeks, but new highs continue to contract...

Europe, Japan, and China have all rolled over now. As we see, the rest of the world accounts for ALL of U.S. volatility via the overnight futures. The biggest risk to the casino is never given a moment's thought...

Bears have been duly flattened by stampeding bulls. No one can warn the herd, because according to their car-salesmen-turned investment advisors, the only "mistake" they made in 2008 was panic selling. This time they won't make that mistake - they're going to ride out the depression in 300 P/E Netflix...

It took the better part of 20 years to make up the gains lost to Big Cap tech after Y2K, and now they've done it again - ploughing all available cash into a handful of mega cap growth stocks. This will be the last time...

The super cycle top is amply evident:

Fed tightening at both ends

Flattened yield curve
Global carry trade unwind

Distribution of stocks from institutions to the general public

Stock buybacks receding
Mass complacency

Extreme speculation

Low cash balances

Retail and auto saturation

Low personal savings rate

"Full employment" - everyone who wants a McJob has one

Extreme over-confidence

Junk IPOs

A couple of new charts I've been working on:

This one shows the extreme BTFD mentality that occurs at the top. In 2007, the 'ALL IN" moment was July 2007, followed by top in October. This time, cash balances hit their nadir post-election. The subsequent higher low is due to institutional distribution...

This chart shows the extreme preference for large caps over the rest of the market, caused by passive investment:

The Amazon fetish has reached asinine levels. Nothing like buying the one company that is destroying the rest of the economy because it has a free pass from Wall Street to remain unprofitable for 25 years straight. You can't make this shit up...

China Tech appears to be burning out with a long wick...

Home gamers have not even the slightest clue this is the end of the cycle. Or that there even is a cycle...

Speaking of extreme speculation, BitCasino, China Tech, Amazon and Netflix are utility stocks compared to Ethereum:

Up 5500% year-to-date:

Here, I overlaid Schwab with Yen carry positioning:

In general however, like the Fed, institutions, and buybacks, global carry flows are not supportive of risk at this juncture...