Monday, November 6, 2017

One Year Later: Make Spontaneous Implosion Great Again

Tomorrow marks one year since the Anti-Christ-in-Chief was elected...

"I alone possess the ability to transform big, fat, ugly bubbles into never-ending bull markets, simply through the power of non-stop bullshit. It's what I do. It takes no effort"

As I just showed, the leading market today is not Tech despite the largest merger in Tech history. The leading market is Energy, because SaudiPlosion is "bullish". What else could it be?

Last week OPEC committed to bullshitting for another year. No one has figured out that the cartel are all price takers. Global deflation controls the market. 

Two year overbought:

During the past three year glut, inventories climbed as prices fell and inventories fell as prices climbed. This is the exact opposite of what supply and demand curves would predict. Demand should rise when prices fall, and supply should fall when prices fall. UNLESS, both supply and demand are inelastic. In fact they are negatively correlated to the price of oil. When oil falls it's because the global economy is deflating, hence demand falls. Supply rises when the price falls to offset the loss of revenue. More units supplied at a lower price. 

This below is why Saudi Arabia is in turmoil right now - because the country is going bankrupt and it can no longer afford unlimited numbers of dilettante sheikhs running up the credit cards:

In 2016, they had a -17% budget deficit:

Which was exceeded only by Venezuela, another oil producer.

Herein lies the problem, oil and commodities are rising, while the rest of global macro is once again falling. Which is another way of saying that rising prices will not continue to deplete inventories.

Since 2008, crude oil has tracked U.S. deflation 1:1. Deflation is imputed from the TIP/Treasury ratio:

But don't tell anyone, because it's still a secret and we don't want to spoil the ending.

"We're going to make fracking great again"

Keep it up, you're almost there...

Recall, there were three failed IPOs late last week. Which is why there are even more this week. Whatever casino bid we see his week is strictly about Wall street dumping junk...

“IPOs have been well received, and investors are making money...

The pushback last week against toy and consumer products company Funko is a positive"

"The stock ended its first day of trading down 41%"

"That’s good because it means investors when they are not in on the IPO and have to buy shares later are getting better returns"

I can't argue with that logic. If it opened at $0, any new investors would have infinite returns.
"[Funko] is in the same dubious company as, a financial services company from yesteryear. On June 19, 2000, priced its IPO of 1.7 million shares at $13 each. It closed its opening day at $7.375, down 43.3 percent from its IPO price"


"The reason our stock market is so successful is because of me. I’ve always been great with money"