Thursday, November 9, 2017

Hook, Line, And Sinker

Trump's imaginary tax cut got bought with both hands by the usual bagholders...

I said recently that the rest of the world transmits risk to the U.S. via the overnight futures. It's then the job of oblivious BTFDers to assiduously ignore that risk and pretend the rest of the world doesn't exist. Today, they were busy closing the opening gap when word leaked out that the Senate tax plan is nothing like the House tax plan. Next thing you know, the S&Ps dropped another 20 points, and so they spent the entire the rest of the day buying the casino back to the open:

Nevertheless, as we see above, there is still a "gap" between the House and Senate. The question on everyone's mind is does that gap get filled, before another overnight gap appears?

One thing we know for certain is that the smart money isn't waiting around to find out:

The rest of the world doesn't care about a Trump tax plan, so it stands to reason, they also are not onboard:

We'll soon find out...

Meanwhile the Fed has not wasted one minute of the past year waiting for the fake details of the Trump tax plan to not appear.

As usual, the Fed is always right, up until the point at which they are totally wrong:

This however is the real problem for the casino:

Leading today's counter-trend rally, was Macy's the worst performing stock in the S&P 500, on news that revenue is imploding:

In other words, shorts took profit on the weakest sector today. 

Gamblers can console themselves that the imploding economy is merely the "Amazon effect", and more reason to put all of one's eggs in one basket:

Imaginary tax cut lovers will be happy to know that the Fed is crushing banks, retail, and now Transports:

Trump had a whole year to start one war, and he fucked that up too.

Bush had carpet bombed the entire Middle East by the anniversary of his election:

Volume was ~twice average, so today was a distribution day.

Breadth was abysmal:

One more gap 'n crap:

When you look up "key reversal" online, they show you this picture. (This latest fork was planned, but then cancelled for some reason I don't care about).